EURO 2016 Preview - Germany

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EURO 2016 Preview - Germany

Postby sussexpob » Thu Jun 02, 2016 12:48 pm

If the boozy pictures with Rihanna and the husky next day voices were indication that the World Cup 2014 had ended with several badly hungover German’s, then the team’s performance over the last 2 years since has done much to suggest that the mental hangover from the teams win in Brazil still lingers on.

The dominant German’s tournament win, highlighted by arguably the most shocking 90 minutes of football ever seen when they blasted holes through a much fancied and proud footballing host nation Brazil’s on their way to a 7-1 win, was supposed to be the start of a period of worldwide dominance in football; international class players crawling out of the woodwork from everywhere, a team with a foundation of proven winners under pressure, youthful without the naivety that comes with a lack of experience.

So far it has failed to materialise. Since the 2014 final, Germany have played 18 matches and won only half, losing to virtually all the top recognised teams they have played bar one result against Poland at home, and against a highly experimental Italian team. On its own, this is not a cause of concern. Germany topped their Qualification group, and comfortably qualified from a group where a lot of teams were capable of beating each other, reducing the amount of easy points available and therefore the qualification mark. And the friendlies they have lost can also be dismissed on the grounds of competitive worthiness.

Look in the detail, however, and there are some worrying trends developing for the German side. They were battered by a talented Polish side away in qualification, were shutout and beaten by a very average Ireland side, made to work incredibly hard and defensively exposed by a similar average quality Scotland team, and even struggle to brush aside a no-hope Georgia side until the benefit of an extremely fortunate piece of referring changed the game. The friendly games too have not exactly been kick abouts, games against the USA, Australia, England and France were all played with the intensity of proper competitive fixtures, and in all Germany have for large times been outplayed. Last week’s Slovakia game was very intense, and Germany were continually punished at the back for their poor defensive play, and simply out hustled and worked in a match played on a waterlog pitch and more akin to a First World War battle ground.

Winning a World Cup often paints a target on your chest, teams want to beat you to judge their own capability and often being such an illustrious and successful team means facing others that raise the intensity of their game. Germany at current are struggling to adapt to this, and need to turn this around quickly if they are not to go home from EURO 2016 in huge disappointment. A lack of intensity is not the real issue; you get the feeling Germany are past the point of trying to hard, too mindful, not letting their natural talents take over. Winning brings a different pressure, one that does not seem to make this team 100% comfortable.

The loss of some key players has also been largely glossed over. Lahm is the most notable loss, a lynchpin of the team for over a decade and one of the finest players of his type to play the game. Klose’s goal poking talents were also missed in a side lacking a proper number 9 options, and Mertesacker’s defensive abilities are missed in a team with a noticeable problem in defence. Schwiensteiger is also nowhere near the match winning all round talent that he once was after several injuries, and the key playmaker that set the team in motion.

All this aside, one does not have to look far for encouragement when assessing the German teams capacity in this tournament. At the top of the team sheet, Neuer is recognised as the finest keeper on the planet by many. The midfield depth and power is also scary, with Ozil, Kroos, Schurrle, Draxler, Gotze, Kheidera and Muller all offering incredible attacking ability with the ball at their feet. There is nowhere against Germany you can hide when this midfield get going, in any area they have the brilliance to hurt you with the ball. There has been few complete units in the history of the game with this much talent and depth.

Yet shaping the individual brilliance of the midfield into a successful side has proved more difficult for Low. There is clear problems with Germany’s defence that have caused issues, and these problems may have been widened by the erosion of the German’s midfield defensive shield (Schweinsteiger/Khediera) who no longer have the energy to cover large areas of the field. Previous attempts to marry Kroos and Bastian as the base of a 4-2-3-1 system have not worked, and neither has the 4-4-1-1 system with Khedira and Kross. Low has therefore chopped and changed to afford his team less defensive stability, but in doing so has seemingly muddied the waters. In recent games he has shifted to a 3-5-2 system with wingbacks and a centre defensive midfielder, but this only serves to have picked more unworthy defensive players in place of their creative heart.

I would expect that Low will setup in his favoured 4-5-1/4-3-3 system, with Boateng/Hummels at the centre of defence,Jonas Hector on the left and Rudiger on the right. In the centre I would expect he goes with Kroos and Schwiensteiger and forgoes the defensive step down for creative ball playing talent. Ozil behind the front man, and a combination of Draxler/Schurrle/Muller and Gotze up top. At striker, it seems the re-emergence of Mario Gomez as the classic number 9 finisher will be reinstated. Gomez brings nothing but finishing ability, but a side with goals in them, this is all they should need.

All in all, Germany feel like a worse side since 2014, and before that tournament I predicted their defensive errors might cost them dearly. In the end it didn’t, but those problems are starting to come to the fore. Every team in the competition has a weakness, and Germany are not distinct from that, and one should not forget just how much talent this team have. They did after all beat Brazil in a semi-final 7-1 when it all came together, and the depth in the squad will become apparent as games go to extra-time, or the tournament rides on.

Germany are capable of winning the tournament easily, but this time I feel they won’t do. I cant see them being capable of a plan B in tight games they have to defend well in.

Prediction – Losing Finalists/Semi finals.
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Re: EURO 2016 Preview - Germany

Postby mikesiva » Fri Jun 03, 2016 9:46 am

An excellent read again, SP....
:bow:
However, in spite of losing Lahm et al, and their patchy form since winning the World Cup, they nearly always rise to the occasion at these tournaments. The Germans always seem to produce good new players, and they always seem to have players who play better for country than club.

For those reasons, I pick Germany to win the whole thing.
Nobody has a stance quite like the mighty Shivnarine....

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