World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby bigfluffylemon » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:32 am

Interesting stats - Warner and Finch between them account for 43% of Australia's runs in the tournament, and Starc 47% of their wickets. England managed to neutralise all three, and Australia's lack of strength in depth was exposed. Handscomb looked like a player who had just been dropped into his first ODI in months in a high pressure situation, and Stoinis and Maxwell's form and fitness were exposed.

Funnily enough, England are in the final even though they don't really have any strong contenders for members of the tournament XI - Archer is probably the only cert, and perhaps Root (Bairstow and Roy have had good tournaments, but there is strong competition in the opener spot from Rohit, Warner and Finch, and Stokes loses out to Shakib in the allrounder stakes). Yet I think you could make a strong case that England has displayed the best all-round side and strength in depth in the tournament alongside India. Consider:

England batting average 43.26 - second only to India who are marginally ahead on 45, and miles ahead of the next best (37 for SA - Australia has 36 and NZ 32), and by far the best strike rate of 6.45 - only Australia managed over 6 (with 6.02).

England bowling average 29.03 and econ 5.29 - both second only to NZ (27.12 and 5.01), and slightly ahead of India on both counts.

England have five players with over 350 runs in the tournament - Australia have 4, India 3, Bangladesh 2 and no other side (including NZ) have more than 1.
England have three players with over 13 wickets in the tournament - equalled only by NZ. Several sides have 2.
England have a spinner with more than 10 wickets - India, South Africa, Afghanistan Bangladesh have also managed that (although none has taken more than 12 - Chahal).

On paper, England are a stronger all round side than New Zealand. But the same could have been said for India in the semi. And New Zealand has the statistically best bowling attack in the tournament, and as has often been observed, sides that win world cups tend to be the ones with the best bowling. But at least England are second, and have a better spinner.

Should be a corker on Sunday.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Fri Jul 12, 2019 11:45 am

Weird stat. Afghanistan have four bowlers in the top 14 of the best econ list.

Is Archer going to play in the Ashes?
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby sussexpob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:08 pm

I think New Zealand have to be aggressive. They absolutely need to break the 1st partnership at all costs, and if that means bowling out someone with the new ball, then they need to do it. If you dont break partnerships and bring on the holding bowlers, England just flip up a gear. Great example is vs India in the groups, Shami and Bumrah had England hopping, they were then took off, and England went for the kill..... India never recovered. Kohli should have been prepared to bowl both out, you cant hide against England's top order or expect to hide your worst bowlers against them.... if your Hardik is bowling to the openers, youve probably lost.

And in extension, I doubt many games against England are lost in the last 10 overs as a bowling unit. If England are in a healthy position after 40, it doesnt matter who is bowling at the death. They bat deep and wih power, so unless you have 6 down plus, the result might be pretty similar. England seem to fire or not fire, you need to get wickets down in the first 20.

I think England have more ways to beat NZ than the other way. They will no doubt be favourites.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby sussexpob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:09 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Is Archer going to play in the Ashes?


100% sure he will be there. Many people were skeptical, but he has proven in recent months just what a talent he is. Ignore the stats, he can win matches with all three skill sets. Very exciting prospect moving forward.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:16 pm

Might mean Broad loses his place. Depends if Wood is retained after a couple of good Tests.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby sussexpob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 12:19 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Might mean Broad loses his place. Depends if Wood is retained after a couple of good Tests.


It was only one test wasnt it, Vs the Windies in St Lucia. Tbf Wood is well overdue an injury, so you cant really add him in the discussion with any certainty.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby ianp1970 » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:01 pm

Anderson, Archer, Broad, Woakes and Wood battling for 3 positions is a very nice problem to have. Now if only we could find as many candidates for numbers 1, 2 & 3...
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby bigfluffylemon » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:38 pm

ianp1970 wrote:Anderson, Archer, Broad, Woakes and Wood battling for 3 positions is a very nice problem to have. Now if only we could find as many candidates for numbers 1, 2 & 3...


Anderson and Broad have the record of class against Australia, especially at home. Can't leave them out. Wood had one good test after an appalling previous record, and this world cup has been much better than his previous ODI record suggests (remodelled action apparently), which if it continues is promising, but I still think he's a risk front-up.

Archer has shown he lives up to the hype and totally justified his fast-track into the squad after he qualified. He's been superb, and the missing link that England needed to make them a complete side. Having him partner Woakes in the first 10 rather than having Willey or Curran there has made an enormous difference, and he's very skilled at the death. Test match bowling is different, but I think he will definitely feature in the Ashes.

That said, the Ashes are five tests in six weeks - fast bowling cover will be essential, as someone is bound to get injured. So having five vying for four places is good. Australia already have injury concerns.

I think we'll also see Roy in the Ashes. Again, opening in tests is a different prospect from ODIs, but he's got the proven record against international quality bowlers, and let's face it, he can't be worse than some of the alternatives that have already been tried and discarded. At least if he comes off, he'll take the game away from the opposition quickly, even if it's hit and miss. Better than someone like a Vince or a Stoneman, where you know you're going to get 20-30 at best.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby bigfluffylemon » Fri Jul 12, 2019 2:38 pm

sussexpob wrote:I think New Zealand have to be aggressive. They absolutely need to break the 1st partnership at all costs, and if that means bowling out someone with the new ball, then they need to do it. If you dont break partnerships and bring on the holding bowlers, England just flip up a gear. Great example is vs India in the groups, Shami and Bumrah had England hopping, they were then took off, and England went for the kill..... India never recovered. Kohli should have been prepared to bowl both out, you cant hide against England's top order or expect to hide your worst bowlers against them.... if your Hardik is bowling to the openers, youve probably lost.

And in extension, I doubt many games against England are lost in the last 10 overs as a bowling unit. If England are in a healthy position after 40, it doesnt matter who is bowling at the death. They bat deep and wih power, so unless you have 6 down plus, the result might be pretty similar. England seem to fire or not fire, you need to get wickets down in the first 20.

I think England have more ways to beat NZ than the other way. They will no doubt be favourites.


Good post sussex, agreed.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby backfootpunch » Fri Jul 12, 2019 3:25 pm

sussexpob wrote:I think New Zealand have to be aggressive. They absolutely need to break the 1st partnership at all costs, and if that means bowling out someone with the new ball, then they need to do it. If you dont break partnerships and bring on the holding bowlers, England just flip up a gear. Great example is vs India in the groups, Shami and Bumrah had England hopping, they were then took off, and England went for the kill..... India never recovered. Kohli should have been prepared to bowl both out, you cant hide against England's top order or expect to hide your worst bowlers against them.... if your Hardik is bowling to the openers, youve probably lost.

And in extension, I doubt many games against England are lost in the last 10 overs as a bowling unit. If England are in a healthy position after 40, it doesnt matter who is bowling at the death. They bat deep and wih power, so unless you have 6 down plus, the result might be pretty similar. England seem to fire or not fire, you need to get wickets down in the first 20.

I think England have more ways to beat NZ than the other way. They will no doubt be favourites.

Yeah

If roy and bairstow are still in when Neesham and de grandhomme are bowling it could be carnage
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby sussexpob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:24 pm

Also, I don't know how the stats play out for different teams in each scenario, but as NZ captain I think the best course of action is to bowl at all costs. Some might disagree, but for two reasons....

Firstly, as a batting unit NZ concede power in every position in the order. Naturally therefore if both teams bat to their capability NZ would be short in a first dig. It's better to face a high score And be forced to bat to it rather than make an under par score and try to defend it

Secondly, on similar terms, you always feel England look at a pitch, say it's worth X runs, then add 50 onto their target score. They will always when batting first want to take the other team out the game, and that means taking risk. When another team sets under 300 most of these players can play relatively naturally to make that, when setting a score they will always want to attack more knowing if they don't, they've left runs out there.
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby sussexpob » Fri Jul 12, 2019 4:27 pm

Also as the two semis proved....as a batting unit you can't win a game in the first ten, but you sure as hell can lose it. Bit of pre game nerves and stuff, I'd want to see the other team dealing with it with bat in hand first
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby GarlicJam » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:12 pm

sussexpob wrote:I think England have more ways to beat NZ than the other way.

Without a doubt. This sums it up nicely.
Maybe
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby GarlicJam » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:21 pm

Seen as a (potential) weakness for England before the tourny started, the England bowling lineup has become another strength for them - very evident against Aus - where only the usually reliable holding bowler, Plunkett, being anything other than dominating.

NZ have only the two bowlers likely to wreak havoc - Boult and Ferguson - maybe Sodhi if they pick him and it's his day. With Woakes lifting, and being in a good opening partnership with Archer, England have 3, even 4 who may do so.

Similar thing can be said for the batting, except it is 2 to 5...
Maybe
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Re: World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Fri Jul 12, 2019 10:40 pm

What was Roy up to after being given out? That didn't look good.

And JB1 referring his lbw was pure Shane Watson.
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