World Cup semis & final, July 9-14

[bigfluffylemon]

So watch out for a QualiElimifier style format next time...

Why not just have India play every side twice, then automatically qualify for the final regardless of results? Seems to be the only way.

[sussexpob]

Easier said than done when India 5-3 and 24-4 of 10 overs. In a situation like this you have to take the game deep just to remain in the competition.

The target you need to chase to win the game never changes, regardless of the dynamics in play during an innings. While it might be sensible at times to see a few overs out and stabilize an innings in a short term, the required "risk factor" you need to exhibit in order to chase down the target is only ever increasing proportionally in the remaining overs with every passing ball you dont attack or maintain the rate.

Take yesterday as an example. As Jadeja came to the crease the RR was at 7.5 required. Regardless of the horrendous situation that he came into (92/6 after 30.4 overs) it never changes the fact that to win the game they had to bat at 7.5 collectively. In fact, you can turn round and say Jadeja played a blinder, but in actuality he only batted just above the RR when he came in (7.8 per over on his SR).....so that means in order to win the game with Jadeja's magnificent effort, Dhoni had to match it at a SR of 119 over a period of 20 overs for India to win the game. He was in the 50s or low 60s I think once Jadeja got out, so he was nowhere near.

Using Dhoni's SR of 69, he'd have knocked off 41 of that RR in the allotted 20 overs. That leaves the rest needing to score 110 runs, or 11 runs per over, or SR183, which on average the most aggressive batters in the world come nowhere near in sustaining with frequency. ~How many people in the history of the game have scored 110 of 60 balls? In any format? The list is pretty exclusive.

The average T20 RR is 7.67 through the history of that format, factoring in top batsman playing pedal to the metal. The highest ever scores attained between two established T20I teams (ie minus the Afghan v Ireland games) have run rates just over the 12 per over mark. So Dhoni was essentially asking his tailenders to come up with innings that have rarely been attained by the best teams in history in the most aggressive formats of the game. The likelihood this scenario would have worked on a probability scale would be close to zero.

When the rate goes to around the 7-8 runs mark per over, regardless of the match situation you must at that point jettison the idea of "hanging in there", and have to be aware that letting the rate climb any further reduces your odds of victory by a dramatic effect. You will still have to be faced with the risk factor at some stage, it cant be ignored.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Aussies bat. Presumably a big advantage.

Teams as expected.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I fancy England though. Their bowlers have been quite economical in this WC, except for Rashid and Woakes. And I include Stokes among the tidy bowlers. And England have a better batting line up. Even so, Starc (and Cummins) could wreck the game.

[Arthur Crabtree]

17 of last 21 games of this WC won by side batting first.

Guardian says Handscom is making his debut in a WC semi- but Wayne Larkins mae his in a WC final.

Nothing like getting your plans in place.

My own heads up here- Blundell in NZ squad hasn't played an ODI. A chance he might debut in the final. They need runs.

[sussexpob]

I fancy England though. Their bowlers have been quite economical in this WC, except for Rashid and Woakes. And I include Stokes among the tidy bowlers. And England have a better batting line up. Even so, Starc (and Cummins) could wreck the game.

If Starc turns up today, he can win this game on his own. He's miles away the most capable ODI quick in the world, when he gets that ball just to swing in that fraction late, he's unplayable. Australia have match winners mixed with meh, but its a one off game, they only need 1-2 players to make an impact and its their game.

Australia have the worse side on paper, but you just always feel Australia as a team have something about them for the big occasions....while England have a habit of fluffing their lines.

Should be a good match this.

Good luck to the Aussie boys here..... may the best team win

[bigfluffylemon]

Lose the toss, lose the game?

Confidence not high, but if England give it their best and play how they have over the last two games, they have a chance.

[bigfluffylemon]

Good luck to the Aussie boys here..... may the best team win

Amen.

[captaincolly]

Interesting start - first ball hit for four by Warner. And Finch out first ball!

[sussexpob]

Surely he knew he hadnt hit it then? Bit of a waste of a review

[bigfluffylemon]

Good start for England, Finch usually scores big against us. Now it's the sandpaper bros at the wicket.

If Australia have a weakness, it's that their middle order hasn't really been tested, as their openers have scored so many. Another early wicket or two will make things very interesting.

[captaincolly]

Surely he knew he hadnt hit it then? Bit of a waste of a review

Yep. Poor decision to review.

[sussexpob]

Massive moment... Warner fails.

[sussexpob]

Massive moment... Warner fails.

[captaincolly]

Might turn out to have been a good toss to lose. Time will tell.