Ashes 2025-26.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Some talk that England are concerned Bashir's finger hasn't healed. Which would surely expose some pretty dodgy selection, if they've taken one spinner, who is not even fit!

[andy]

Would explain why he's bowling like a drain....you would like to think he is fit...however they have previous with moeen Ali so yes could well be the case....jack's/bethell would get taken apart in Australia....both bowling attacks looking very fragile ahead of this first test.....

[sussexpob]

Winning at Perth doesn't happen, it's a write off. They lost heavily at the WACA even when they won three Tests by an innings in 10-11. Unless the new ground is going to be completely different. Though the current BBC headline says the pitch is exactly the same. Maybe the reputed lack of the Fremantle Doctor will be a factor

The Optus pitch was designed to be like the WACA of old, and have been pacey and bouncy. In many ways, these conditions have traditionally been somewhat of a false friend to paceman, and many a bowler who ran in and banged the middle of the pitch has done badly. If you ignore the WACA's dying days when the pitch turned into a turnip field and lost all of its traditional qualities as the 2010s went on, it has always favoured away bowlers who hit the seam and bowl a tad fuller. I think the real example was back in 07/08 for instance, when the only test India won was at the WACA with a pace bowling attack of RP Singh, Ishant and Pathan, bowlers who pushed it up looking for swing at not really noticeable pace. I think before that, only the legendary attacks from the West Indies challenged the Aussies.

Even the modern pitch shows this. Bumrah is very full, flat and skiddy. Shami hits the seam and pushes it up trying to swing it. Pakistan's medium-fast allrounder had a great game, Afridi bowling quick and short had a mare. I am a little worried that England's tendency to bang it in fast is not going to make the best use of conditions.

Even the Aussie bowlers are like this. Starc bowls much fuller than anyone else in the Aussie side, has the most Perth wickets out of all pacers. Hazelwood is the classic hit the seam line and length guy bowling non-noteworthy pace, exceptional record. Cummins is the worst of the established front line seamers, and he is the one who bowls the shortest.

Carse strikes me as the England bowler who could potentially be the best in the conditions.

[Arthur Crabtree]

England only remember how deadly Mitch1 was at the WACA. Though in 10-11, Harris did nearly as well. However, England don't have a bowler at Harris' level. Maybe Robinson is closest.

[sussexpob]

England only remember how deadly Mitch1 was at the WACA. Though in 10-11, Harris did nearly as well.

But these examples are exactly my point. Mitchell's 6 for nothing in 2010 .... Cook out driving what appeared to be a very full ball in the slot but the bounce means he didn't get on top of it. Next three batsman out lbw. Then the next bowled..... only Anderson at 11 got out slashing a wide shortish ball. Johnson took 6-38 because he pitched it up, not because he was half tracking it at pace.

As for Ryan Harris, check the highlight video.... again, confirmation of the point. Just after 3 minutes they show his pitch map during his 6-47.... how many are back of a length or short, and how many are bang on a good length or much, much fuller..... Its quite clear Harris was targetting middle of a good length or fuller, in some cases very full. One ball on back of a length, one bouncer....

This is how you take wickets on these surfaces.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Johnson got those wickets because he pitched it up... and swung the ball prodigiously at pace! You can afford to bowl full if you get so much lateral movement.

Also could call on a nasty bouncer to push the batter into the crease.

[Durhamfootman]

Having spent much of this year hoping that England get a thumping, in order to stick two fingers up at Key and the Kookaburra, it occurs to me that, since the kookaburra is an ex parrot and has ceased to be, I can now go back to hoping that England give the Aussies a damned good thrashing..... which is a dangerous place to be; a place where the inevitable disappointment gets worse and worse with every test, until finally culminating in total despair and a sense of complete humiliation

Perhaps I was better off before

[Durhamfootman]

It helps that I don't have the facility to watch it, so I'm better off than most

[Arthur Crabtree]

After Steve Smith's weird criticism of Monty Panesar's general knowledge, I can't be the only cricket follower demanding the Australian captain take a public IQ test.

[sussexpob]

After Steve Smith's weird criticism of Monty Panesar's general knowledge, I can't be the only cricket follower demanding the Australian captain take a public IQ test.

Steve Smith on mastermind would be like Rimmer trying to take his astronavigation exam.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Prediction for the series- Aussies to win 5-0, weather permitting. Not an all time great Aussie batting lineup, but home advantage is usually enough. And England's batting isn't strong either.

Hope for the series- they get 90 overs bowled each day, weather permitting.

[Durhamfootman]

feels unrealistically hopeful. Might as well hope that Trump gets impeached or Farage is brought down by Nazigate

[sussexpob]

Prediction for the series- Aussies to win 5-0, weather permitting. Not an all time great Aussie batting lineup, but home advantage is usually enough. And England's batting isn't strong either

I get the sense that the English press are over-encouraged by the Aussie's apparent weaknesses, ignoring the fact that the home v away differences will be unfavourable each way for England. Much is made about the two pace bowler injuries, but in reserve Australia have a guy who averages lower than Victorian era legends at home (50 wickets at 12 runs a piece is just staggering), and this might be a blessing in disguise for Australia considering how well Boland has bowled on home pitches where he gets the extra bounce off targeting excellent lengths.

Other apparent declines in players might be apparent when taking form overall into account, but Khawaja has had one bad series at home in 8 years. Smith averages in the high 40s still at home which is going to take an excellent series from an England player to match. Marnus has turned his form on his head and has banged 6 odd centuries since returning to Australia, if he is anywhere near the same beast that has wracked up home runs in huge numbers in the past, then its another mountain England need to overcome. Alex Carey is quietly having his best year in test cricket. Indeed its true that Cameron Green remains a question mark. And someone must have told Travis Head he's playing for Sussex again, because he looks in abject form at the moment.

To win the series, England need to win a lot of these battles. They need to keep Head out of nick, get Cameron Green's contributions down, need to keep Smith under 50s for the series, hope Marnus' return to form is a false dawn when elevating it to test match conditions, and hope Khawaja's recent form is indicative of terminal decline to the point he won't make key scores.... and then hope for the first test at least, Mitchell Starc and Lyon don't smash teams as they have in Perth a lot.... and hope Scott Boland is returned to a stratosphere more normal.

Its a big ask. And the real question that remains is how robust England are in the face of early failures. I have been around long enough to see what happens to England sides in Australia when things dont go well. The spiral of decline is quick, and can define careers and legacies. For all the macho stuff of Stokes and McCullum, I can remember the complete mental decline of Flintoff, another talismanic character who exhibited confidence, drifting away into a Caribbean night on a pedalo still trying to cope with the fallout of that 5-0 battering he overseen. The same series de facto ended a few older players careers. England were left pondering major institutional changes to the game.

It's that aspect of self-immolation that makes me lean to a bad loss. Away Ashes bring out the worst in English cricket, and even someone like Vaughan who is a propaganda merchant for the Stokes-era got his boot in pre-series. These critiques will reverberate into very loud noises if England lose the first test.

[sussexpob]

As for England, first the potential positives (maybe I will read this post in January and the assessment will be terrible, but oh well...)

I have high hopes for Jamie Smith, who in many ways reminds me of Dave Warner in his technical setup, and Warner made runs for fun at home. He has that same tendency to set himself in a strong position to play the ball, is very good at getting his weight back and hitting over the ball... I have high hopes for him despite his recent form. Joe Root is not a concern for me. I don't care what he did in 2013 or in the past, he is simply not the same player. He has matured into a world class player, and I expect him to carry England and be a difficult player to remove. I weirdly have no concerns with Zak Crawley, I think in Australia you have to target the stumps rather than the channel outside off stump more, which will suit him along with the ball coming onto the bat.

From a bowling perspective, Atkinson has done everything he could so far in test cricket to convince me of his class. I would like to think Brydon Carse will suit these pitches if he bowls more of his fuller stuff and attacks the stumps. Archer and Wood's sheer pace could be a difference maker if we get some turgid Adelaide wicket that takes 3-4 days for the spinners to come in.

But then, the negatives.

Brook has made scores recently, but he's also looked really ragged at times and benefitted from a few drops (The Siraj one being comical/huge luck). I think at some stage that lack of control is going to come back to roost, and there is no time like the present. Duckett's form is a huge worry coming in, and his tendency to manufacture shots into the leg side to balls not quite short enough could be terminal on bouncier wickets - in Australia you leave on length from the stump line, not on line.... Duckett leaves nothing. I can't see him doing more than a few isolated scores, and have a big fear he might be utterly taken apart. Ollie Pope and Bethell are two players I just dont pin much hope on at all.

In the bowling, I have a feeling Stokes is going to be key, and he's bowled exceptionally this year - but my lack of confidence in other areas and with no prime spinner, I would bet my life Stokes will not play all 5 tests, and not be surprised if he only plays 1-2-3 after bowling himself to injury again. I have concerns Archer will bowl too quick and too short, last summer as an example. You have to hit the stumps in Australia. Wood even if he takes 20 wickets in he first test, probably wont bowl again till mid-2027, so cant be counted for anything. Tongue;s current style of tremedous wicket ball followed by trash needs to improve. And on the spinner front, its as close to 0/10 as you can get.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Good stuff.

Might be that the Aussies would have rotated their seamers anyway, given the tight schedule at the end of the series. Though they wouldn't have left out two. And we don't know yet if these injuries will drag on over the whole series.