T20 World Cup, Oct 17 - Nov 14

[bigfluffylemon]

Big win for South Africa means they could still overhaul England in NRR. It would require a thrashing though - either way they'll have to restrict England to around 80 runs, and score 160+ batting first or knock them off in 10 overs or less batting second. Australia are a long way behind on NRR, but play Bangladesh and West Indies so would be expected to improve their position significantly.

Going to take three very one-sided games for England not to qualify, but I won't rest easy until they are certain. This is England, after all.

Still, Australia play both their games before England/South Africa, so both sides will know what they have to do. Of course, if Australia do manage to lose a game (doesn't seem likely, but West Indies could pull something off), both England and South Africa will be qualified before a ball is bowled.

Meanwhile Pakistan become the first team to qualify for the knockouts, but all five other teams in Group B still have a mathematical (if not realistic) chance. India should beat Afghanistan tonight to keep themselves alive, but Afghanistan are no pushovers in this format.

[alfie]

One might see it as tempting fate ; but I am going to say that I just don't regard "SA 160 v England 80 " as a realistic proposition. Upsets happen , yes. And any team can win a t20 on a day. But that kind of convenient miracle ?

SA wouldn't actually be officially qualified before the match though , even if West Indies cause an upset. Their NRR effectively ensures they'd be safe in second ; but they could still be in a three way tie on 6 points with WI and Aus so would still have to do the math...though I imagine it would take something like Australia being bowled out for twelve for West Indies to lift their NRR enough to compete

Barring major miracles this is going to end up with England first and SA or Australia second - depending on Eng v SA and Aus v WI results.

Namibia had a real go with the bat , didn't they ? Never going to get close but credit for their endeavour : they've done better than I'd expected here

[alfie]

Wonder if Afghanistan will persist with their "bat first" policy should they win the toss tonight ? Be daft if they did , I think : judging by India's previous two game the Afghans would have a really good chance of winning if they get to chase as the dew comes down...

Though I suspect we will see a bit more aggressive intent from India's top order in this one.

[Arthur Crabtree]

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-india-59130556

Amazing and pretty shocking story here from BBC. Moslems in India sacked and arrested for acclaiming Pakistan's victory.

[Arthur Crabtree]

NZ only getting a small NRR boost here with Scotland not going for the target.

Afghanistan v India could be momentous... if Afg win the toss.

[Arthur Crabtree]

India off to a flyer.

Ashwin gets a game.

[sussexpob]

India finally finding some batting

[Arthur Crabtree]

That's slowed Afghanistan's momentum a bit.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Afghanistan walk into a swinging door. But India still need NZ to trip up against Scotland or Afghanistan and then be on the right side of the NRR.

[Durhamfootman]

does head to head not enter into the equation?

[Arthur Crabtree]

I thought the ICC had got rid of that in the last WC.

[bigfluffylemon]

does head to head not enter into the equation?

I believe not.

[alfie]

does head to head not enter into the equation?

I believe not.

Couldn't apply in this case anyway as they will only tie on 6 points if they all have beaten each other.

Do think India's big win may put them in pole position if it were to end up three wins each , as I'd expect them to further improve NRR at the expense of Scotland and Namibia.

NZ just need to keep winning.

[GarlicJam]

Aus sure are no certainties for tonight's game. Bangladesh must be very confident after walloping Aus at home recently

[sussexpob]

Aus sure are no certainties for tonight's game. Bangladesh must be very confident after walloping Aus at home recently

BD have been woeful so far though