WI tour of England, July 8-28

[alfie]

I think there will be 105 overs tomorrow with a day being lost.

That would be nice ! But I think it is just 98 ?

[Arthur Crabtree]

It's just an extra hour on the day the play was lost then.

Still, could be crucial.

England could even try bowling more than fifteen overs an hour...

[Durhamfootman]

that's commie talk, mister!

[Durhamfootman]

To be worth it they'd need , say , 88 overs to bowl. That's eight only for England to bat tomorrow...couldn't expect to push the lead to more than about 250...and I think they'd think that too risky.

do they have a choice? they might decide to come out and have a frantic couple of overs to try and disturb the concentration of the WI openers, but that just wastes 4 overs. They might decide to give themselves as many overs as poss and declare just before play begins. They have to win after all... nothing else will do and a draw is as good as a defeat in this situation. 220 or 250, they'll still have to bowl very well to win. If they bowl poorly they won't defend either total

One of these days they'll go into the first couple of days of the first test of a 3 match series without their undies on backwards, their orthotics in the wrong shoes and their heads still full of moths... then they might find that they won't need to blame a bit of bad luck with the weather....after all... who could possibly foresee time lost to the rain in Manchester?

[Durhamfootman]

If I was a betting man.... and I'm not..... I'd put money on England being unable to force a win tomorrow and then completely blowing the West Indies out of the water in the final test, when it's all too late

Because it's what they always do

Then they'll pat themselves on the back for a dominant final test performance and feel a bit unlucky to have not regained another trophy because of the weather and only the weather

Because it's what they always do

Then on the 5th August, they'll put their undies on the wrong way round again, forget which way round their orthotics go and walk onto the pitch half asleep again

Because it's what they always do

[Durhamfootman]

maybe I should become a betting man after all?

Ray Winstone thinks I should

[bigfluffylemon]

Sounds about right DF.

The BBC commentators seem very bullish on England's chances for tomorrow. Not making out like it's a guaranteed win or anything, but they seem to be playing up the idea of a result. I reckon it's still 80% + draw.

[alfie]

Not at all sure what will happen , BFL ; but I think there is a bit better than 20% chance of a result .

Presuming England only bat another ten overs approximately (and if they go any longer it rather makes a mockery of the frenetic "promote the sloggers" approach last night ) then West Indies will have to either chase down something like 270 or survive 85 overs or so.
I doubt they'd be taking risks to chase , being one up ( I may be totally wrong there , of course !) so with the ball keeping low at times even yesterday they might be in for a very nervy last couple of sessions. We saw how quickly wickets could fall in that last session and you'd think the pitch will only get harder to bat on. They have generally played very soundly on this tour but are possibly about due for a poor innings - perhaps that's why the BBC Comms are so bullish ?

One important factor of course is how the England pace men pull up after yesterday's exertions. All bowled twenty odd overs ; and we've seen already that doing so after a long break can impact bowlers quite heavily. Could do with Bess getting a bit more active this innings too - he started well but didn't quite land enough in the danger spots as he went into his spells. Might see a bit from Root too ?

Reckon it might be a pretty tense day.

[sussexpob]

I think its really easy for armchair fans and the critics to call for Joe Root to declare leaving West Indies a chance, but I think the reality is Root might be far more inclined to be wary of throwing away the series today than putting the win in front of all calculations. Despite the boisterous nature of the England supporting commentators, Root probably knows in 4 weeks time if he loses the test today, the context will be almost entirely forgotten by then, and leaving the bait out in hindsight will be attacked as poor captaincy. I had to laugh reading this morning that apparently Captain Steel was advocating some suicidal declaration because "us English boys always think about the win"

Indeed Captain Steel. Its not like given the same conundrum when captain, youd have sent yourself out to dead bat last night, and would have declared with a 450 lead sometime at 5.55pm for a 10 over shot at the win.

I personally cant see Root declaring until the target score is over 300. I just dont see him, knowing his captaincy style and history, leaving anything that the Windies can hunt down. If there are nearly 100 overs in the day, England score say 5 runs an over this morning, 270 would be reached leaving around 88 overs with the innings change.

Thats only 3 an over. Windies could bat without exerting themselves too much towards that target, and given wickets in hand in the last session and 3.5 runs an over required, then make an attempt at the game. So for the sake of another 10 odd overs to put that equation out of the game completely, I think Root would do that.

Im expecting Root to declare with a lead of arond 300-310 ish, with 80 overs left, depending on whether Ben can make the 300 target happen in shorter than that.

Generally Id say 40 percent England win, 55 percent draw, 5 percent chance Windies chase a low set total

[sussexpob]

And as Alfie says, one thing that could really factor is how fit Englands bowlers are feeling. Sam Curran in the run up to the first test broke down with illness (at one point sending everyone into a covid scare) so can he get through 50 overs in 2 days? Broad is an ageing warrior now and if he was as fit as he has been over the years, its doubtful he would have been dropped for the first test. Woakes has a chronic knee condition and seems always injured at the moment, can he bowl 40 to 50 overs in two days? It took so long for Stokes to get the ball yesterday, apparently the TMS crew sent a message to England dressing room asking if he was injured, so after back to back tests and a very slow 200, he might be cream crackered.

And all that adds risk to that lower target if bowlers start to look jaded.

[bigfluffylemon]

Broad was talking up England declaring in time for the second new ball to be a factor, so they'd be batting 10 overs maximum. That gives best case scenario 270-280 to be chased in 85 overs. As sussex says, that's only just over 3 an over. While the pitch is slow, that's pretty achievable if you keep wickets in hand.

I agree, can't see England declaring that aggressively, so you probably give the West Indies 75 overs to survive with a target that is out of the question (300+). At that point, the West Indies can just drop anchor. The pitch is still slow, and between that and tired bowlers, and how tidily the West Indies have batted, I think you'd back them to survive that.

I hope I'm wrong, but I still think draw is the strong favourite.

[alfie]

Bright start !

The way Stokes has jumped out of the blocks I fancy they might want your 300 lead , Sussex - but aren't looking to bat twenty overs to get it...

Lot depends on how long Stokes can get away with murder. Really should have been caught then !

[Arthur Crabtree]

Woakes looks a more convincing fast bowler with a beard. Less apologetic.

Can't be far off now.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Maybe let Gentle ben get his ton...

[Arthur Crabtree]

No, innings is abandoned. 85 overs to bat for WI.