Ashes 2025-26.

[Durhamfootman]

this composite nonsense always feels to me like an exercise in futility

[Arthur Crabtree]

My first task was to rip up the BBCs selection criterion...

Smith in decline beats Root at his peak?

[Arthur Crabtree]

this composite nonsense always feels to me like an exercise in futility

To me, it feels like a normal reflex response to the onset of a series!

[sussexpob]

Smith in decline beats Root at his peak?

Comparing them without context is very misleading for a number reasons relating to circumstance. For a start, such a comparison ignores that both have a very marked difference in home v away averages, so the relative peaks and declines have margins before we consider one to have bettered the other - in the last 4 years they come out equal at 49 runs a piece.

But then you ask quantify those averages a little more. Smith played 70% of games against the top 3 ranked opponents Australia could play, Root played 48 percent. And Roots away form is proportional to both quality of opposition ranking + generic runs scored. For instance SL is the highest average place to bat for away bats, Roots averages best there. Second NZ, second also for Root. The trend goes all the way to elite sides where he performed badly in Australia, and under his own average vs India. So the expectation even using his own experience is that Smith's average is indicative of playing elite opponents in Australia, Root's away average is vastly inflated by easier opposition.

Then you ask, what is the current trend for away bats in Australia... the answer is, historically nightmarish. The average since 2021 is 21 runs a wicket for away teams, this is staggeringly low. In Australia's golden age peak in the 2000s, it was 29. Only India manage that in Australia recently, and that is still below historical averages. In England, runs have gone up for away teams, and all perform above expectations. Zimbabwe's performance in England is as good as the best anyone has managed in Australia, and only Ireland are worse than them. The obvious explanation is pitches. There isn't any bowling all-rounders smashing Gary Sobers record for 50s in a series happening, nor is there a record amount of overs or games going to day 5 happening.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I expect they'll both do well. I'll try and remember to score these combo XIs at the end of the series.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Then you ask, what is the current trend for away bats in Australia... the answer is, historically nightmarish.

Maybe a tribute to their bowlers, who have remained fit and in form as a unit for an unusually long period.

[sussexpob]

I have been guilty of saying Smith is in decline, but the more you look at the data from matches in Australia, the more I think the opposite is true.

His 49 run average since 2021, when you think of its value in games to what other teams manage ... well its staggering. Even taking Australia's 2000 peak and using that as a metric for scoring in games, 49 would translate to roughly 68 runs back then.

Of course, there were periods he was scoring trucks of runs, but when we consider how far he is ahead of the mean on Aussie pitches even if its not huge runs.... the gap itself is still huge.

[sussexpob]

I think this is where the English press seem to be way off the charts with all the pre-series talk, they seem to be looking at our batsman's achievements on CEO wickets the ECB dialled up for bazballing, and think this is going to be in anyway an indication of what they will do in Australia. And they also seemingly find it impossible to link what Aussie bats do at home. I hear Marnus is a train wreck and Brook is the world best player... well, over Brooks career span, Marnus averages more at home. Travis Head averages 55 at home in the last few years. And we are ponying up players like Crawley who average 26 away.

A lot of England players away records look significantly better by the fact Pakistan laid on three of the top 10 flattest decks ever measured. Start taking away the easy runs on featherbeds, starts to get ropey.

[sussexpob]

Maybe a tribute to their bowlers, who have remained fit and in form as a unit for an unusually long period.

The drop off is nearly 1/3 of all runs scored, when compared to a historical period where Australia had arguably the best team ever. The current Aussie attack is good, but was it that much better than Warne, McGrath, Dizzy, Johnson et al?

[alfie]

this composite nonsense always feels to me like an exercise in futility

It is really just a bit of filler for media leading in to a series , is it not ? And pretty pointless as what counts is how the respective players perform in the series when it actually happens. Perhaps mildly interesting to see how the predicted version from a particular source matches up to the one the same source will select at the end ...

[sussexpob]

It is really just a bit of filler for media leading in to a series , is it not ?

Harmless bit of fun. There are only so many articles about nothing happening you can write about

[Arthur Crabtree]

Just for Durham, here is a compo-side of the present day Aussies and the mid-00s Aussies.

Langer/Hayden/Ponting/Smith/Clarke/Hussey/Gilchrist/Cummins/Warne/Hazlewood/McGrath

8-3 to the 00s.

And England.

Trescothick/Strauss/Vaughan/Root/Pietersen/Flintoff/Smith/Giles/Atkinson/Jones/Hoggard.

8-3 to the 00s.

So maybe not going to be at the level of that period on either side. Still the most important factor is the sides are evenly matched. Which I suspect they are not, in Aussie conditions.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Aussies firming up the impression that Cummins is going to be missing.

[andy]

No way will he be fit for the second test either....I'd be stunned if he played any part to be honest...they will miss Cummins the bowler not the captain

[Arthur Crabtree]

Crawley has now played 59! Tests. 5 tons and an average of 31.6. I'm wondering if anyone in the England setup is having late second thoughts..