4th Test England v Pakistan, The Oval, Aug 11-15

[bigfluffylemon]

And so to the Oval, where the traditional test season curtain fall takes place. As a result, it is also the traditional home of the dead rubber - at least half the matches played there over the last 10 years have been dead, and only in 2009 was the final match of the series at the Oval an 'all to play for' affair, with England and Australia locked at 1-1. Most 'live' matches at the Oval feature one team one ahead of the other, and only needing a draw to clinch the series.

Perhaps because of that, and the lack of motivation to win as a result, the Oval has been one of England's weaker grounds in recent history, with the record of the last 11 years reading W 5 D 3 L 3, although only two of those three losses have taken place while the series was still live. Pakistan will take a lot of encouragement from that, and from their record here recently - in 2010 England were blown away by Pakistan's pace attack, Amir destroying the England lower order in the second innings, and in 2006 they were well ahead and looking likely winners before the unfortunate events and bizarre forfeiture.

It's interesting to speculate why the London grounds have been markedly less successful for England than everywhere else in the country (apart from Headingley). Is it the fact that London is slightly warmer and drier than the north, hence the conditions aren't as 'English'? Are the home crowds less raucously partisan? Is it the dead rubber effect? Due to the size of the grounds, is there extra pressure from the ECB to prepare wickets that will last five days, so giving a higher proportion of draws? I am not sure.

There are frequent mutterings that the Oval is a more spin-friendly track than most of the rest of England, perhaps in part because the test is usually played late in the summer when conditions are likely to be more spin friendly. But history doesn't particularly bear that out. While England benefited from a turner in 2009, it was in large part due to the fact that they had Graeme Swann, the best English spinner in thirty years, while Australia foolishly chose to omit their spinner. Other innings simply don't bear that out. Pakistan's successes here in 2006 and 2010 came off the back of strong pace bowling. In fact, since 2005, spinners at the Oval have taken their wickets at an average of 38, worse than everywhere but Trent Bridge and Chester-Le-Street, and with a pretty poor SR too:
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... pe=bowling

Combine that with the knowledge that England haven't won in England playing two specialist spinners for something like thirty years, and the fact that a turning track will only bring Yasir Shah into the game, who is miles better than either Moeen or Rashid, and the prospect of a spinning wicket and England playing two spinners seems insane to me. It's possible Rashid could be brought in for Moeen to give the former a shot prior to the winter subcontinental tours, but dropping the last game's player of the match when there is still a series to be won seems bizarre.

England have named an unchanged squad, so Vince will keep his place, despite not really convincing. You have to wonder how many more chances he will get, but the alternative of bringing some new blood in for a tough India tour is also unpalatable. There can't be many batsmen who suddenly repay the faith after six tests of not looking convincing.

On the Pakistan front, the replacements at Edgbaston were fully vindicated, even if Pakistan lost. But there are more problems, and perhaps not enough cover in the squad. On the batting side Hafeez, Younis and Shafiq have all fallen short of what has been expected, but there is no cover at all in the opener position, and the only two other specialist batsmen in the side are uncapped, although decent domestic performers. On the bowling side, Rahat Ali's place must be under threat, and if Pakistan buy into the notion of the Oval track turning, could possibly be replaced by Zulfiqar Babar.

On balance, I'd be surprised if either side makes any changes.

The weather is set fair, with sunny skies and mid-twenties temperatures forecast.

[backfootpunch]

Hoping for a pitch with decent carry

Was disheartening to see so many genuine edges not carry at edgbaston for both sides

[Arthur Crabtree]

Great stuff bfl. I'm up for it now. Surrey's pitches have helped the spinners recently, but I doubt that'll influence the Test pitch. Bayliss has been more convincing than usual in talking up Rashid's possible inclusion. In this series (until Sunday anyway) Finn hasn't really contributed much, and three seamers have been enough. But I imagine Finn will play.

[backfootpunch]

Great stuff bfl. I'm up for it now. Surrey's pitches have helped the spinners recently, but I doubt that'll influence the Test pitch. Bayliss has been more convincing than usual in talking up Rashid's possible inclusion. In this series (until Sunday anyway) Finn hasn't really contributed much, and three seamers have been enough. But I imagine Finn will play.

Would seem a bit harsh dropping finn after the vital role he played in the win

[bigfluffylemon]

The one caveat to my disparaging remarks on playing two spinners is that due to the all-round nature of Moeen, Rashid and Woakes (and Bairstow's capacity to bat at 6), that England can play two spinners and still have three seamers, as you point out, Arthur. So it's not as unlikely as playing, say, a four-man attack with two specialist spinners. And you're right that Finn will hardly be missed, and Ben Stokes didn't do much either in his only test match. So it's a possibility.

But history suggests one spinner is the way to go. And Finn has been both been getting better (his spell in the second innings is the best he's bowled all summer) and been on the rough end of I think it's four drops in the slips?

How's the weather been in London lately? I've heard it's been a wet summer, but my informants are mostly in the West Country and Oop North.

[Arthur Crabtree]

England could have the best of all worlds by batting Mo instead of Vince, and bringing in Rashid while retaining Finn, but that feels indecisive, and if JV has to go, a batter should replace him. And needing a draw, they won't drop a number four for an allrounder.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Great stuff bfl. I'm up for it now. Surrey's pitches have helped the spinners recently, but I doubt that'll influence the Test pitch. Bayliss has been more convincing than usual in talking up Rashid's possible inclusion. In this series (until Sunday anyway) Finn hasn't really contributed much, and three seamers have been enough. But I imagine Finn will play.

Would seem a bit harsh dropping finn after the vital role he played in the win

He does have two wickets in the series, both taken on Sunday, at an average of 121. But fair enough, he did seem to click at last, and maybe it would be perverse to drop him at that point. Unless the selectors feel there is a really strong case for Rashid. Which I doubt there will be.

[Arthur Crabtree]

How's the weather been in London lately? I've heard it's been a wet summer, but my informants are mostly in the West Country and Oop North.

Hot and dry at the moment. A fair amount of cricket has been lost over the summer though.

[hopeforthebest]

I've no idea what Bayliss thinks, or if he does think but I'm sure that Cook will never experiment in the last game of a series only one ahead. I'll be surprised if it not the same eleven that take the field on Thursday morning.

[Aidan11]

If everyone is fit I suspect we will field the same XI.

[hopeforthebest]

If were to believe Bayliss Rashid is a probable but this coach seems to deal in red herrings all the time. I wonder if he's seen any other spin options play or, will he rely on advice from others when the squad for the winter tour is discussed.

[backfootpunch]

If were to believe Bayliss Rashid is a probable but this coach seems to deal in red herrings all the time. I wonder if he's seen any other spin options play or, will he rely on advice from others when the squad for the winter tour is discussed.

If the india pitches are anything like the south africa series we will need 3 spinners

So Ali, rashid and Ansari I suppose

All are capable with the bat as well

3 spinners would mean no stokes though and we now Bayliss rates stokes very highly (anderson, broad and Woakes are undroppable)

[hopeforthebest]

If were to believe Bayliss Rashid is a probable but this coach seems to deal in red herrings all the time. I wonder if he's seen any other spin options play or, will he rely on advice from others when the squad for the winter tour is discussed.

If the india pitches are anything like the south africa series we will need 3 spinners

So Ali, rashid and Ansari I suppose

All are capable with the bat as well

3 spinners would mean no stokes though and we now Bayliss rates stokes very highly (anderson, broad and Woakes are undroppable)

According to his recent statement, Stokes, Woakes, Moeen and Rashid are already on the team sheet for games in India. He then talks of possible 3 pace and 3 spin bowlers playing. Gives something for the media and us to talk about I guess.

[Arthur Crabtree]

If were to believe Bayliss Rashid is a probable but this coach seems to deal in red herrings all the time. I wonder if he's seen any other spin options play or, will he rely on advice from others when the squad for the winter tour is discussed.

If the india pitches are anything like the south africa series we will need 3 spinners

So Ali, rashid and Ansari I suppose

All are capable with the bat as well

3 spinners would mean no stokes though and we now Bayliss rates stokes very highly (anderson, broad and Woakes are undroppable)

If the spinners are functional, I'm not sure three seamers will get enough to do. If the spinners bowl the overs they should, maybe one of Broad or Woakes will have to be left out.

[Making_Splinters]

Depends if he considers Root as a spin bowler I suppose, Ansari could come in, but three spinners is really over kill given we don't have one Test class one in the side at present!