The England team is tired. So fatigued that the players need to fly to Dubai for a few days before the fourth Test. This is the event for which England supporters traditionally arrive, the Mumbai Test, at one of the legendary venues of the grand old game, The Wankhede Stadium. And England are promised that the spin that has troubled them so far will only turn sooner and faster there and in the final leg at Chennai.
And England are already backed into a cul-de-sac, 2-0 down with two to play and their squad damaged by uncertainty and injury. Yet the Wankhede isn't a bad ground for England, having won (and lost) three times there.
The first victory
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/63262.html is famous for one of the great all round performances, by Ian Botham, who scored 114 and took 13-106 in a ten wicket England win to conclusively triumph in his battle of the all rounders with Kapil Dev. In this year's version, Ravi Ashwin is triumphing over Ben Stokes, if only because his efforts have led to an unbeatable series advantage.
The next England win in 2006,
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/238187.html is best remembered for Shaun Udal's 4-14 as India deflated hideously to lose by 212 runs on a big spinning last day pitch (though Owais Shah may recall his debut differently). But James Anderson will have good memories on return having taken six wickets.
England can't get too fixated on the toss. They batted second
http://www.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine/match/565807.html in a big candidate for their most treasured ever win in India, by ten wickets in Mumbai in 2012. A returning Monty Panesar had his best game for his country as he and Graeme Swann took the last nineteen Indian wickets to fall, once Anderson had dismissed Gautam Gambhir with the second ball of the game. And Kevin Pietersen's furious 186 was rated by mechanics of a Great Innings Formula to have played one of the best ten Test knocks ever. Though Alastair Cook's 122 will resonate more meaningfully next Thursday.
Should Keaton Jennings make his debut on the 8th, he can reflect that half of the England batters to have made tons at the Wankhede were born in Southern Africa. And Alastair Cook can fret that no one has made two there for his side. The arriving Liam Dawson can draw inspiration from fellow left armers Derek Underwood's ten wickets there at 22.7 and Monty Panesar's 12 wickets at 23.2. Apart from Anderson and Botham, spin has dominated.
Since 2010, pace has taken only seven wickets for India in Mumbai, averaging 12 overs per fast bowler per innings. In 2012 against England, India went into the game with only one pace bowler. And they lost. But this time the risk will hardly exist. So expect to see the Indian pace bowlers doing a lot of fielding. Only an English optimist would bet on England this time around, and they will lose their money.
I always say that everybody's right.