England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:26 am

sussexpob wrote:
Arthur Crabtree wrote:That's a significantly worse record for WI, as reflected by their terrible ranking. They've won seven Tests against traditional top eight sides this decade. They've won 4 Tests since Jan 2015, lost 15, drawn 4. England have won 16, lost 16, drawn 5. And since Jan 2015, England have beaten SA home and away and beaten Australia and SL. WI haven't beaten anyone.

This was a shock result.


What they have done in a decade is not important, teams change. Since we last met them, they have lost to Pakistan, we drew... thats the basic difference on the same series we have played where we can be compared, although they have taken a game in UAE which England havent managed in 6 attempts, and came away with a 20% loss ratio in the two biggest tours in India and Australia.

I dont think we can say, where they can be compared, there is a "significant" difference.

The most significant difference is the amount of test cricket England have played compared to the Windies. That is significant.


That's why I quoted from 2015. The longer timescale just suggests WI results are chronic as well as acute.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Adi » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:39 am

sussexpob wrote:
Adi wrote:I like the declaration by Joe. It was correct decision. West Indies are a very poor Test team and if you cannot take chances even against them then what is the use of the strength of your own team


Since England failed to beat this team in their last meeting, Windies sides performances in comparison to England.....

Windies lost to Australia at home 2-0 in 2 tests.... England beat them 3-2
Windies lost 2-0 in Sri Lanka.... England havent played away in Sri Lanka for years, but did lose the series before this to Sri Lanka at home 1-0
Windies lost 2-0 in India in a 4 test series...... England lost 4 tests out of 5, a worse loss ratio
Windies lost 2-1 to Pakistan in UAE.... England lost 2-0 so did worse on their last tour in 15/16
Windies lost 2-1 at home to Pakistan...... England drew 2-2 but had the extra test.
Windies lost 2-0 in Australia in 3 tests.... the draw being better than England managed in their whitewash 5-0 humping

So Windies are a very poor test team, but their achievements against the same opposition arent exactly that much better, on the tours to India and Australia England have won 0/10 tests!!!!!

Do England have the right to point at WI and say they are incredibly inferior to them?



The last i checked they are ranked after Ind,SA, AUS, PAK,SL, NZ,ENG (not in this order). They are better than only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe imo as of now.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 11:49 am

Adi wrote:The last i checked they are ranked after Ind,SA, AUS, PAK,SL, NZ,ENG (not in this order). They are better than only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe imo as of now.


The scheduling of test cricket has rendered the rankings complete nonsense. South Africa havent toured the Windies in nearly 8 years.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Adi » Wed Aug 30, 2017 12:08 pm

sussexpob wrote:
Adi wrote:The last i checked they are ranked after Ind,SA, AUS, PAK,SL, NZ,ENG (not in this order). They are better than only Bangladesh and Zimbabwe imo as of now.


The scheduling of test cricket has rendered the rankings complete nonsense. South Africa havent toured the Windies in nearly 8 years.


Sorry, although i watch few test matches, i have observed that West Indies are bad as compared to other teams. They do not have any top class test match batsman. Nobody in the class of Virat, Chet, Cook, Joe, Smith, Amla, ABD. Neither they have any top class bowler. This is the situation since 2000. Only Chanderpaul was one who was outstanding in that lot.In the same time span other teams have seen 3 world class batters and lot of good batters as well. What West Indies have is the rare player who averages okay and the rest being averaging like all rounders batting average. Bowling too is not much. There is no world class spinner or pace bowler in WI team. Definitely all this can be attributed to one or multiple reasons of following: (1)Poor domestic cricket environment (2) Lack of quality players (3) Bad selectors (4) Youth preferring other cricket format or sports other than cricket. Whatever the reason is they have not produced even one world beater batsman or bowler in lot of years. Whereas other teams have churned out more number of quality cricketers.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:16 pm

sussexpob wrote:Windies lost 2-0 in Australia in 3 tests.... the draw being better than England managed in their whitewash 5-0 humping ?


The draw was due to a washout. Only 150 overs were bowled in the entire 5 days. Hardly indicative of the West Indies doing 'better' than England against Australia.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:20 pm

Alfie/Adi,

I had a friend before last weekend chat to me about football betting, because hes useless at it and I gave him a few tips last weekend that made him some money. We talked betting tactics etc, as previously him and his mates had just bashed money on whoever was perceived as hopeless, and he never won out. I told him that in history, you look at the "magic 40 points barrier" which is often seen as the barometer for the minimum required to save yourself from a premier league relegation, and informed him that the loss ratios of a 40 point team in the premier league tend to be about 50% through history, probably 45% depending on proportion of draws. Take the last time Newcastle were relegated. 37 points scored. They lost 17 games out of 38. As a punter, critic, whatever, before any game you go in and say "Newcastle are hopeless this year, they will lose"... say this every week, you are wrong more often than you are right, even though in relative terms they are having a disastrous season.

The is a general perception with "very poor" teams that they are always rubbish, that they are lose hopelessly every match. That they are taken apart in every game, but apart from occasional teams that really excel in being poor, you will find that even in the most abject of team fortunes, they are not always anywhere near as bad as you expect. A team in the premier league can win one, lose one and draw one all season, and in some years might only be a few points away from relegation with around 48 points. Thats only a couple of wins from the magic 40. And thats hardly that bad form, is it?

The point is, when we talk of the Windies being a "very poor side", it doesnt mean they are at all incapable of making 300. It means maybe they do it every other test, instead of everyone, but saying its "rather unlikely" or whatever..... its not strictly true. In fact, Windies average score in all innings of the last decade is bang on 300. For England, its is 350. On average, the difference between a team seen as at the very top of test cricket, and one seen at the very bottom, is 100 runs per test. So when a captain comes to judge the ability of a side to score a target, he should be savvy enough to realise that even though the Windies arent seen as very good, they are capable of scoring 300 regularly enough on average to make that score in virtually every test innings, on balance.

Whereas you claim Alfie that he miscalculated, id be more inclined to say no calculation other than a rather mistaken and arrogant belief that a poor test side gets bowled out for 150 every test, occurred. His declaration set one question.... can Windies score 300 odd. He left them ample time for that not to be a factor. The game had been played on a surface where, other than the new ball on the first morning, the wicket average was over 50 per fall. Both teams had scored well over 322 in the game. There was nothing there for the bowlers.

So yes, I think Root simply said "this team are cr*p, they will roll over" and in doing so asked Windies to play an innings in their average capability to win a test. The last time they had a target this large in a test, they made exactly the target amount. The test before they fell short by a handful. I'd suggest the belief that it was "highly unlikely" it would happen is evidence of the arrogance I allude to.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:21 pm

Amusingly, West Indies bat average per wicket is BANG on its decade long average. So it kind of proves it.... in order to b like they have for a decade, it probably means being bowled out in one test cheaply, making 800 runs the following one.

England have a bat average of 48 per wicket in this series, Windies 30..... the only reason its 1-1 is down to Root. He lost England a game with his madness
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:27 pm

I said it on day 4, and nothing that happened on day 5 made me think that the decision to declare was anything other than the correct one. Yes, it's easy to be wise after the fact, but just because a decision doesn't come off doesn't mean it was wrong a priori with the information Root had at the time the declaration was made.

It's like saying you were wrong to bet on a full house in poker because your opponent happened to be holding 4 of a kind. You'd win 99 times out of a hundred on a full house, so you bet. Just because it's the 1 in 100 times you don't win doesn't make the decision to bet incorrect.

This was the third highest run chase ever in England, and in the top 20 of all time. And one of those two better chases in England featured a certain D. Bradman, and the other featured Greenridge, Haynes, Richards and Lloyd. Teams don't chase 320 to win on the final day of a test in England. They just don't. This is a result so rare it's only been achieved in less than 1% of test matches ever played. It's no disrespect to the West Indies batting to say that it should have been judged unlikely that tey could achieve it - much, much more experienced and higher quality batting line ups than theirs have failed on 5th day wickets, even if all they had to do was stay in and score at 3 an over.

The pitch did appear to flatten out a bit overnight - Moeen's over on day 4 showed more turn than anything he got on day 5. However, it still did plenty for Broad and Anderson in the morning. Broad bowled very well in the morning session. He went for a few runs, but if you saw it, they were almost all edges through the slips/third man, or driving through the vacant offside with 6 men behind the bat - both the sort of shots that result in wickets very easily. And England dropped 3, or was it 4? Had Cook held a regulation chance in the fourth over of the day, odds are West Indies wouldn't have got close. Even if England had managed to bag two more wickets in the afternoon session, West Indies would have been highly unlikely to risk going for the runs in the final session, with 3.5 an over still needed. It could so easily have gone the other way.

That's not to take anything away from the West Indies batsmen. If anything, quite the opposite - what they achieved yesterday was a rare and special feat, and they batted well to achieve it. But it was a shock result, and doesn't make the decision to declare a poor one.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:34 pm

It's like saying you were wrong to bet on a full house in poker because your opponent happened to be holding 4 of a kind. You'd win 99 times out of a hundred on a full house, so you bet. Just because it's the 1 in 100 times you don't win doesn't make the decision to bet incorrect.


So you rated West Indies chances at chasing down 322 at 100/1??

Interesting, as the bookies had England at just under evens on the evening of the 4th day..

Id like to bet at your bookie.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:43 pm

sussexpob wrote:
The point is, when we talk of the Windies being a "very poor side", it doesnt mean they are at all incapable of making 300. It means maybe they do it every other test, instead of everyone, but saying its "rather unlikely" or whatever..... its not strictly true. In fact, Windies average score in all innings of the last decade is bang on 300. For England, its is 350. On average, the difference between a team seen as at the very top of test cricket, and one seen at the very bottom, is 100 runs per test. So when a captain comes to judge the ability of a side to score a target, he should be savvy enough to realise that even though the Windies arent seen as very good, they are capable of scoring 300 regularly enough on average to make that score in virtually every test innings, on balance.


That's more than a little disingenuous. No one ever said the West Indies can't make 300. But it's ridiculous to say that they make it every test innings, on balance, because the 4th innings is not the same as batting in the 1st innings. In the last 10 years, the West Indies have only once chased a target greater than 255. That was yesterday. They have only twice made more than 300 in the 4th innings at over 3.5 an over. Once was yesterday. It was entirely reasonable to consider it would be unlikely that they could achieve it.

Yes, it wasn't a certainty. Root took a risk. No-one is suggesting that it was impossible that the West Indies could have achieved it. Yes, England could have batted on, and turned the game into a certain bore-draw. But that's precisely the sort of captaincy that Cook and Strauss were repeatedly criticised for. I can't remember if you, sussex, were among their detractors, but I don't recall you as being a particular fan of Cook's captaincy. Just because a risk was taken that didn't come off doesn't mean it was wrong to take the risk. You are suggesting that it was bleeding obvious that the West Indies were likely to chase that total down. It wasn't. It was possible, but not likely.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:45 pm

sussexpob wrote:
It's like saying you were wrong to bet on a full house in poker because your opponent happened to be holding 4 of a kind. You'd win 99 times out of a hundred on a full house, so you bet. Just because it's the 1 in 100 times you don't win doesn't make the decision to bet incorrect.


So you rated West Indies chances at chasing down 322 at 100/1??

Interesting, as the bookies had England at just under evens on the evening of the 4th day..

Id like to bet at your bookie.


That was the odds of an England win at the bookies? What were the odds of a draw, or a West Indies win?

I'd be astonished if any bookie did not have better odds on England to win than the West Indies at the close of day 4.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:49 pm

bigfluffylemon wrote:
sussexpob wrote:
It's like saying you were wrong to bet on a full house in poker because your opponent happened to be holding 4 of a kind. You'd win 99 times out of a hundred on a full house, so you bet. Just because it's the 1 in 100 times you don't win doesn't make the decision to bet incorrect.


So you rated West Indies chances at chasing down 322 at 100/1??

Interesting, as the bookies had England at just under evens on the evening of the 4th day..

Id like to bet at your bookie.


That was the odds of an England win at the bookies? What were the odds of a draw, or a West Indies win?

I'd be astonished if any bookie did not have better odds on England to win than the West Indies at the close of day 4.


Skybet at close on day 4 had England 1/3 on, draw 3/1, West Indies win 12/1
https://www.sportinglife.com/cricket/ne ... ase/100322

Not 100/1 (I was making a point), but England win was 36x better odds than a West Indies win.

Maybe you should have had a punt, if it was so self-evidently likely that West Indies would win. You could have made a packet.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Aidan11 » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:57 pm

I was tempted to have a punt at 12/1.
Had a gut feeling they'd do it.

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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Adi » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:06 pm

sussexpob wrote:Alfie/Adi,

I had a friend before last weekend chat to me about football betting, because hes useless at it and I gave him a few tips last weekend that made him some money. We talked betting tactics etc, as previously him and his mates had just bashed money on whoever was perceived as hopeless, and he never won out. I told him that in history, you look at the "magic 40 points barrier" which is often seen as the barometer for the minimum required to save yourself from a premier league relegation, and informed him that the loss ratios of a 40 point team in the premier league tend to be about 50% through history, probably 45% depending on proportion of draws. Take the last time Newcastle were relegated. 37 points scored. They lost 17 games out of 38. As a punter, critic, whatever, before any game you go in and say "Newcastle are hopeless this year, they will lose"... say this every week, you are wrong more often than you are right, even though in relative terms they are having a disastrous season.

The is a general perception with "very poor" teams that they are always rubbish, that they are lose hopelessly every match. That they are taken apart in every game, but apart from occasional teams that really excel in being poor, you will find that even in the most abject of team fortunes, they are not always anywhere near as bad as you expect. A team in the premier league can win one, lose one and draw one all season, and in some years might only be a few points away from relegation with around 48 points. Thats only a couple of wins from the magic 40. And thats hardly that bad form, is it?

The point is, when we talk of the Windies being a "very poor side", it doesnt mean they are at all incapable of making 300. It means maybe they do it every other test, instead of everyone, but saying its "rather unlikely" or whatever..... its not strictly true. In fact, Windies average score in all innings of the last decade is bang on 300. For England, its is 350. On average, the difference between a team seen as at the very top of test cricket, and one seen at the very bottom, is 100 runs per test. So when a captain comes to judge the ability of a side to score a target, he should be savvy enough to realise that even though the Windies arent seen as very good, they are capable of scoring 300 regularly enough on average to make that score in virtually every test innings, on balance.

Whereas you claim Alfie that he miscalculated, id be more inclined to say no calculation other than a rather mistaken and arrogant belief that a poor test side gets bowled out for 150 every test, occurred. His declaration set one question.... can Windies score 300 odd. He left them ample time for that not to be a factor. The game had been played on a surface where, other than the new ball on the first morning, the wicket average was over 50 per fall. Both teams had scored well over 322 in the game. There was nothing there for the bowlers.

So yes, I think Root simply said "this team are cr*p, they will roll over" and in doing so asked Windies to play an innings in their average capability to win a test. The last time they had a target this large in a test, they made exactly the target amount. The test before they fell short by a handful. I'd suggest the belief that it was "highly unlikely" it would happen is evidence of the arrogance I allude to.


Sussex, on day 4 i was saying that lead of 200 runs was enough versus WI. If had the decision making i would have declared earlier than Joe did in this test. So i am not at all blaming him for England's loss. Just because England did not win one test versus WI, the decision does not becomes wrong. I could see the logic behind declaration given the remaining time, the opponents, the presence of two world class bowlers in Jimmy and Broad and the use of two balls due to overs remaining, the averages of WI player more often than not. Bad luck that WI striked in this test match which is the point you are making. We shall see how many matches Joe wins against WI under his captaincy and then rate Joe. As long as the win loss ratio against WI is going to be reasonably good , he should be allowed to use his logic in declarations. Obviously if England end up losing half the test matches to WI after declaring wit cushion of 300+, then at that time even i would certainly say that Joe need to work upon his declaration tactics / strategy/ logic. So from my side i have no issues regarding this declaration tactics at this point of time. It can be reviewed later as soon as it gets clear that it is failing frequently. One loss is acceptable. Otherwise Woakes and Broad and No. 11 will add on another 30 runs by wasting another half hour and game will end to draw. Joe went for win instead of draw. I am also sure he would not have declared at 300 versus Warner or Quinton who can score run a ball hundred. There is enough justification from Joe to take such a declaration target imo.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:07 pm

Odds were wrong though they underestimated wi all game.
Wi were still even or higher than evens when they needed around 120 to win.
So it wrong to based it on the odds considering the bookies price the game wrong all test match.
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