England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:19 pm

bhaveshgor wrote:Odds were wrong though they underestimated wi all game.
Wi were still even or higher than evens when they needed around 120 to win.
So it wrong to based it on the odds considering the bookies price the game wrong all test match.



It depends what bookie you are using, doesnt it. Skybet for instance is a UK only bookie, so its going to get a LOT of biased English bets knocking the odds down.

The international exchanges rated England at 3/4 at best. If not 23/20 at worst (say that as a general, rough spread).

And BFL, I had had a bet at 23/10 on West Indies win overnight. So yeah, I made a little. Outside the UK, without the UK market warping the bookie odds, you werent getting more than that on the Windies win.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 2:27 pm

bigfluffylemon wrote:That's more than a little disingenuous. No one ever said the West Indies can't make 300. But it's ridiculous to say that they make it every test innings, on balance, because the 4th innings is not the same as batting in the 1st innings. In the last 10 years, the West Indies have only once chased a target greater than 255. That was yesterday. They have only twice made more than 300 in the 4th innings at over 3.5 an over. Once was yesterday. It was entirely reasonable to consider it would be unlikely that they could achieve it


Achieving a target is neither here nor there, we are talking how much you can score in a 4th innings, whether or not you win the game or not has no baring on the expected runs you can score, and therefore base a declaration one. Taking how many times in the last decade West Indies have been set over 322 and scored it.....

17 times they have been set the target. They have scored it 6 times, half of which they had wickets in hand. In one occasion they were close to the target with more than half wickets left and ran out of time, so Id give them the 7th instance assuming infinite time. Thats 42% of times they have had enough runs to target this, they have made it.

No obviously, you have to say thats made it. There is a plus/minus risk factor in this too. For instance, lets take into account how many times Windies were set that target and came within 15% of making it. There are 12 of the 17 instances where Windies score 280. There is an occasion they score 260/4 also, so Id guess we can add that in there (they successfully chased so that ended)..... You are looking at about a 76-77% chance, in the last decade, that Windies get at least within 50 runs of 322 when they have been set it.

No gambling man is taking on those odds of losing.

Oh and yes, Windies average a few hundreths of a run away from their general average in the 4th innings, so they are fractions away from an average of 300 per completed fourth innings if you had checked the stats. Its something like 297 per complete 4th innings.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 4:03 pm

I make it 18, but that's splitting hairs.

You don't have infinite time. That 266/5 was scored in 93 overs. Joe gave the West Indies 96 overs to reach the target. And 5 down 50 runs shy of a target is by no means a fait accompli on a 5th day test match wicket. 50 runs in general is quite a significant 'risk factor', IMO, and I think far too generous to add it as a whole data point for the 'chance of losing' as you have (i.e. 7 successes plus 5 'near successes' out of 17 = 12/17 chance of succeeding does not logically follow).

You're not just asking the West Indies to make 322. You're asking them to make 322 at a rate of 3.35 an over. They've achieved that twice before yesterday (and one of those was 323 all out in 94.3 overs, so that's a pretty tight squeak. There was also the 254/4 made at 3.7 against Sri Lanka, so it's a reasonable extrapolation that they would have made 322 in 96 if the innings had carried on, so I'll give them that.

So I'd make it 3/18 at best, or 1 in 6 chance of the West Indies making the chase under the circumstances, which England, by your own admission, were at least 1:1, or 1 in 2 chance of a win. That sounds like a reasonable basis for a declaration to me. Some don't have as high an appetite for risk of a loss, and that's fine, but to paint it as a blatantly stupid decision seems unfair to me. West Indies win was a risk, but not a strong one.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:05 pm

Essentially, the chance of West Indies having the ability to score 322 based on the historical data is about 29/21. The chance of them getting within 15% of the target is 3/7 on. Therefore the chance of England blasting them out under 282 is 7/4. So, using the historical data, the by far least likely outcome was England ploughing through them. Chance of an England win - 7/5 based on that (assuming a generous round up by 0.4%) So yeah, you basically cant get closer to a coin flip decision.

Are you telling me that youd take a 51% chance of a win, risking a loss?

General straw poll people, what risk is acceptable? Id say anything where you arent at least 75/80 percent favoured is a risk too high.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Aug 30, 2017 5:51 pm

I still disagree with your assessment of the odds. Why are you using 282, or within 15% of the target? Why are you asking England to bowl them out for less than 282, rather than 322? And why are you ignoring the fact that you're not just asking them to make 322, you're asking them to make 322 at a relatively high run rate for day 5 of a test match?

On the historical evidence, you're saying that the chances of making the score are 29/21, but they only made it 7 times out of 17 at a most generous estimate ignoring run rates and giving a pretty generous extrapolation to one time when they didn't make it, which is 51/21. Meanwhile they've been bowled out for less than that score on 15 occasions batting 4th, and also on another 12 occasions batting last in the third innings.

If you fudge the numbers to require the West Indies to make 40 or 50 runs less than the actually needed to, or to make England bowl them out for 40 less than they actually needed to, and ignore the difficulty of the run rate, of course you get an answer that's more favourable to West Indies than the actual situation.

For the record, no, I wouldn't declare if the odds of a win or a loss truly were a coin flip. But I don't think that was the case here. I think England were far more likely to win that West Indies, and with the draw as well (which would also favour England who were ahead in the series), I think the odds were well in England's favour.

But I don't think we're going to agree on what those odds were, so I think I'll leave it there.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:42 pm

Required run rate wasn't that high though.
With the declaration the draw wasn't possible.
It was either a win for wi or a win for England.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Wed Aug 30, 2017 8:54 pm

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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 9:10 pm

bhaveshgor wrote:Required run rate wasn't that high though.
With the declaration the draw wasn't possible.
It was either a win for wi or a win for England.


Indeed. Englands average run rate in home games of the last decade is near 3.5 an over. If you look, 3.3 is about bang on average for a team.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Dr Cricket » Thu Aug 31, 2017 7:37 am

Athers mentioning what happens to players that swear in another language or vice Versa.
It seems icc might reduce the penalty for swearing.
Apprently they feel that they have to target all swearing now because precedent was set when rabada got a point in June.

At least he put it in a diplomatic way unlike the racist bumble.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Thu Aug 31, 2017 10:31 am

Seems normal. Non England player does something, gets punished. The system is wrong when Stokes gets tagged.

Its not hard. Dont swear.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Thu Aug 31, 2017 11:09 am

sussexpob wrote:Seems normal. Non England player does something, gets punished. The system is wrong when Stokes gets tagged.

Its not hard. Dont swear.


I suppose it is actually an offence in law (in UK at least) so not a lot to ask that they show some restraint in the public eye.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Slipstream » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:27 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:
sussexpob wrote:Seems normal. Non England player does something, gets punished. The system is wrong when Stokes gets tagged.

Its not hard. Dont swear.


I suppose it is actually an offence in law (in UK at least) so not a lot to ask that they show some restraint in the public eye.


:shock:

Can't find that it is.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:32 pm

In Salford, according to wiki.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:38 pm

Id guess you cant swear on a mike up tv before the watershed. And I am pretty sure aiming a four letter tirade at someone aggressively is still the basis of a criminal offence like harassment, potentially even assault if one could prove so. It could also fall on the vague basis of a public order offence.
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Re: England vs West Indies 2nd test Headingley

Postby sussexpob » Thu Aug 31, 2017 1:40 pm

None of that really matters though. While I have not that much of a problem with this type of behaviour, I think the ICC wants to avoid verbals that spill over into Jadeja v Anderson sagas, and for that reason I have no problem with it. I guess its felt that the behaviour of England, or maybe even Australia in the away Ashes series with some verbal threats of violence, took it too far. So now, rightly, lets just nip it in the bud to stop it escalating.

Bowlers can mutter what they want under their breath, but if you arent turning and going back to your mark and getting on with the game, then pay the price.
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