by sussexpob » Wed Aug 30, 2017 1:20 pm
Alfie/Adi,
I had a friend before last weekend chat to me about football betting, because hes useless at it and I gave him a few tips last weekend that made him some money. We talked betting tactics etc, as previously him and his mates had just bashed money on whoever was perceived as hopeless, and he never won out. I told him that in history, you look at the "magic 40 points barrier" which is often seen as the barometer for the minimum required to save yourself from a premier league relegation, and informed him that the loss ratios of a 40 point team in the premier league tend to be about 50% through history, probably 45% depending on proportion of draws. Take the last time Newcastle were relegated. 37 points scored. They lost 17 games out of 38. As a punter, critic, whatever, before any game you go in and say "Newcastle are hopeless this year, they will lose"... say this every week, you are wrong more often than you are right, even though in relative terms they are having a disastrous season.
The is a general perception with "very poor" teams that they are always rubbish, that they are lose hopelessly every match. That they are taken apart in every game, but apart from occasional teams that really excel in being poor, you will find that even in the most abject of team fortunes, they are not always anywhere near as bad as you expect. A team in the premier league can win one, lose one and draw one all season, and in some years might only be a few points away from relegation with around 48 points. Thats only a couple of wins from the magic 40. And thats hardly that bad form, is it?
The point is, when we talk of the Windies being a "very poor side", it doesnt mean they are at all incapable of making 300. It means maybe they do it every other test, instead of everyone, but saying its "rather unlikely" or whatever..... its not strictly true. In fact, Windies average score in all innings of the last decade is bang on 300. For England, its is 350. On average, the difference between a team seen as at the very top of test cricket, and one seen at the very bottom, is 100 runs per test. So when a captain comes to judge the ability of a side to score a target, he should be savvy enough to realise that even though the Windies arent seen as very good, they are capable of scoring 300 regularly enough on average to make that score in virtually every test innings, on balance.
Whereas you claim Alfie that he miscalculated, id be more inclined to say no calculation other than a rather mistaken and arrogant belief that a poor test side gets bowled out for 150 every test, occurred. His declaration set one question.... can Windies score 300 odd. He left them ample time for that not to be a factor. The game had been played on a surface where, other than the new ball on the first morning, the wicket average was over 50 per fall. Both teams had scored well over 322 in the game. There was nothing there for the bowlers.
So yes, I think Root simply said "this team are cr*p, they will roll over" and in doing so asked Windies to play an innings in their average capability to win a test. The last time they had a target this large in a test, they made exactly the target amount. The test before they fell short by a handful. I'd suggest the belief that it was "highly unlikely" it would happen is evidence of the arrogance I allude to.
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And a hat and bra to you too, my good sirs!