Arthur Crabtree wrote:Apparently he's playing. England have named their team. He'll have to make sure he doesn't accrue any more disciplinary points though otherwise he might have to be left off the promotional material for Brisbane.
One disciplinary point, and he can 'miss' the T20 and the first ODI, then get a clean sheet for Brisbane. It's gamesmanship of the highest level, but he could deliberately make the same infraction he did at Edgbaston.
Or he could, you know, stop being such an easily provoked idiot.
This is Lord's. Win the toss, bat, win the game. I just looked at the stats, and going back as far as 2010, only once in 16 test matches has the team batting first gone on to lose (last time the West Indies toured in fact - 2012). Teams have been fooled by the overheads quite often, and have elected to field first on winning the toss nine times, but it has almost invariably been a mistake - they've lost on six occasions, with two draws, and only win (England v West Indies, as above). Teams winning the toss and batting first have won six times, with one draw.
And in one of those bizarre statistical quirks, all three draws in this period have been between England and Sri Lanka, England batted first, and had set a target of at least 340 and had the upper hand when time ran out while Sri Lanka were batting.
The forecast suggests some play (if not all) will be lost on Friday, but a good batting day today, further increasing the importance of batting first, and reducing the likelihood the West Indies will be suckered into fielding first if they win the toss. Given last match as well indicated the West Indies should have confidence in their batting if the pitch and conditions aren't helpful for swing, England may well have an uphill struggle if West Indies win the toss.
On the other hand, Cook, Root, Bairstow and Stokes all have fine records at Lord's, so if England bat first a good score should be on the cards, top order frailties notwithstanding.