The Ashes: Adelaide.

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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby The Professor » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:24 am

My prediction: All hinges on Root. Root will get out in the 90s after lunch. Some spirited performances but we lose by 60ish runs.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby backfootpunch » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:34 am

The Professor wrote:My prediction: All hinges on Root. Root will get out in the 90s after lunch. Some spirited performances but we lose by 60ish runs.

This most likely

Moeen out to a reckless shot
Bairstow stranded with the tail again and gets out trying to get the runs quickly with Jimmy at the other end

Bairstow has to bat 5 imo if stokes isn't in the side

If he can't bat 5 and keep, then drop malan and pick foakes

Atm we need bairstow for his batting not his admittedly improving keeping
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby alfie » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:35 am

Arthur Crabtree wrote:
alfie wrote:
budgetmeansbudget wrote:Still wouldn't put our chances much above 5%.

Been here so many times before to know we very rarely prosper.



Not much on putting percentages on these chases...I'm with Boycott on this with his "add two wickets" and look at it ; so it is very much on a knife edge.
But if (big if !) Root and Woakes could bat through the first session (which would entail seeing off the new ball) the game would swing massively towards England . And you'd not have thought that even a remote possibility 24 hours ago.

As of now , Australia are still in the pound seats : due to historical records and the late wicket of Malan. But whatever happens this has been a welcome fight back by England . Pity they have taken do long to click into gear as this has the makings of an excellent competitive series - as long as it isn't killed off too early.

Glad to see Anderson isn't ready for the scrap heap , by the way. He'll be needed for a year or two yet.



So... what percent is that?


Percent ? I haven't a clue....

Amusing though to note most England fans are fairly pessimistic - while a number of Aussies around here are distinctly uneasy...

Guess that all means absolutely nothing ; except that both results remain possible going into the last day ; which is what you really want of a five day Test , no ?
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Wed Dec 06, 2017 12:47 am

Good it's still five days.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby alfie » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:00 am

The Professor wrote:My prediction: All hinges on Root. Root will get out in the 90s after lunch. Some spirited performances but we lose by 60ish runs.


If Root is still batting after lunch I fancy he'll have more than 90.

History says the chase will fizzle out at some point so your prediction seems reasonable. I prefer to avoid attempts at foresight and just let the plot unfold...
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby backfootpunch » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:21 am

Alarm set for 4am, gonna check the score when I wake and if England haven't collapsed watch the rest

Not working till 2pm so planning on two 3 and a half hour naps if the game goes deep
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:22 am

bigfluffylemon wrote:FWIW, cricviz has England at 20% chance


They're dreaming.

But...

The last Test started close and then began to be dominated by Australia from half way. Maybe this one will reverse that process.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Wed Dec 06, 2017 1:24 am

backfootpunch wrote:Alarm set for 4am, gonna check the score when I wake and if England haven't collapsed watch the rest

Not working till 2pm so planning on two 3 and a half hour naps if the game goes deep


Probably get up for the start of the second session. Should know a lot by then.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Dec 06, 2017 3:21 am

A little dose of the reality of history, courtesy of cricinfo - England's recent Ashes history of collapsing in a heap on the last day...

http://www.espncricinfo.com/story/_/id/ ... es-despair
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:17 am

England got this, root going to play a defining career innings.
Like someone said on cricinfo this is looking like being a competitive ashes series since 2009.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:19 am

Play hasn't started yet, and I'm already tense.

I guess from an England perspective, there isn't much to lose. No-one is still expecting them to win. Provided they don't just throw it away (always possible) but go down fighting, they will come out of the match with a lot of credit - even a loss could feel like a moral victory of sorts. Whereas if Australia manage to lose from the position they were in on day 3, there will be a lot of scrutiny and difficult questions in the days to come.

But let's not get too ahead of ourselves.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:36 am

And reality quickly ensues with a wicket with the second ball of the day. Woakes gone to the thinnest of thin edges.

Ah well.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:49 am

And England have lost the match and root doesn’t get to play a defining test innings or get a hundred.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby bigfluffylemon » Wed Dec 06, 2017 4:55 am

Root fails to convert. Again :no

Might have been nice if the hope had lasted more than 20 minutes into today, but at least now I can get on with something else.
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Re: The Ashes: Adelaide.

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed Dec 06, 2017 5:02 am

Really can’t get my head around root conversion rate problem and the excuses boycott or the reason people come up with doesn’t make sense.
Sometime I wonder if it is the mindset that England have at the moment where their are usually looking at the opposition batsman scoring big runs and saying if they failed England would get a lead or be in the game.
Sometimes I wonder if they would be better off looking at root or England batsman scoring big hundreds, rather worry what smith or Kohli scoring runs.
Really if England scored big runs Australia or India or Any other team might not have won the test.
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