England vs Australia ODI series

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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby bigfluffylemon » Fri Jun 22, 2018 11:57 pm

sussexpob wrote:Not sure I would setup a team based on apparent failure of those around Root. We did that for years, and all we did was pick negative players who didnt have the capacity to play top level scoring. When England lose, Roots SR is in the 70s. That probably says a lot, if people fail and he plays an anchor innings, we lose anyway. And without looking at all those games to get a feel of it, that is probably the most positive interpretation. A more obvious conclusion would be that when Roots slightly inferior scoring ability comes to the fore, England lose.


Except England don't lose very much these days. Root's SR in England wins is over 90, and 8 of his 11 ODI hundreds have come at better than a run a ball. His average in England wins is 64. He also has 8 player of the match awards - of the current England side, only Morgan has more.

I looked at Root's 4 hundreds in defeat. 3 of them came at better than a run a ball, and generally what happened was that the lower order failed to kick on at all and England crumbled from a decent position to set a sub-par total, and were 8-10 wickets down at the end, suggesting that they wouldn't have scored any more if Root hadn't been there.

Maybe you could argue that Root should have batted faster in this game and England would have got over the line
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1088 ... z-2017-18/
But I think it's pretty harsh to blame him when none of numbers 4-9 scored more than 11. Plus it took a superhuman batting effort from Taylor to beat England that day, and England nearly won. Just as likely if Root hadn't been there scoring 'slowly', England would have slumped to 270 all out.

It's more accurate to say that when the top order fails AND Root fails, England lose. In the last two years, that hasn't happened very much.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby bigfluffylemon » Sat Jun 23, 2018 12:34 am

I was bored, so just plugged it into the spreadsheet.

Assuming a squad of
Roy
Bairstow
Hales
Root
Morgan
Buttler
Stokes
Moeen
Woakes
Rashid
Plunkett
Wood

The question of which of the top 7 do you drop to get the optimum score in 300 deliveries.

Assuming everyone bats exactly their average and strike rate, the expected scores after 300 balls are the following when each player is dropped (in each case, this ends up with Ali and Woakes not out at the end - you could change Woakes for Rashid given the latter's superior SR, but it doesn't change the result by more than a run)

Roy 294
Bairstow 294
Hales 297
Root 301
Morgan 300
Buttler 290
Stokes 297

So yes, given England's strength in depth of batting, it's 100% strike rate and average doesn't factor in at all. But the margins are very small - 4 runs in the average innings between Root, Stokes, Morgan and Hales.

Of course, players don't bat their average - they bat faster when making big scores, and on a given day only 2-4 of the top 7 will make a score. So the question becomes is Root's superior consistency worth 3-4 runs off the 'optimum' situation. I'd argue yes, because batting orders are flexible - if a superior SR is required, Root can drop down.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Sat Jun 23, 2018 2:41 am

And it's the vibe too.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby sussexpob » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:24 am

Not sure the isolation of losing hundreds is that useful in the argument. If it shows when on form he bashes people win, lose or draw. The overall SR in losses is a clear indication that there is a link between him batting slowly and England losing, the rate is too significantly lowered to come to any other conclusion. Regardless of standout examples, in games he plays when England lose, his stats show culpability.

You can analysis how wickets have fallen around him or below him, but that takes us on a journey backwards in English limited overs thinking. How many times did our top order batting pedestrian for their own average lead to arguments they had to stay because they were the only ones scoring. No one really wanted to acknowledge, like me, that lower order/mid order results are so keenly tied to what is required of them in the situation. If Root strikes at 75 and England lose 10 wickets, one has to question why. You could just say he was holding an innings together that was failing, im more likely to suggest modern day odis you have to always attack the rate. A batter dropping anchor is asking his team mate at the other end to score at 125SR to win the game. Failure at the other end is therefore comfortably linked to top order pedestrianism.

Of course, we are talking small margins. And of course, I am having to be extreme about what is in essence a world class player to demonstrate my point.

However, on average I'd rather score 4 runs more than not. You have to trust these theoretical models while also appreciating that, if Mo Ali and Woakes on average remain unbeaten, you have a significant comfort blanket below them in the instance of failure.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby sussexpob » Sat Jun 23, 2018 11:35 am

My views are probably seen as madness to others, but I'd also like to see plunkett and rashid thrown into the top order in games. If your openers score runs or make partnerships, supplement it by batting suicide missions. Tell Plunkett to in and slog everything. If he gets out so what. If he makes a 50 or even a quick 20 it's working.

I think weirdly you should never be left with wickets in a odi.unless your top.orser have scored loads of runs, or you have chased down a target. It's a cardinal sin to underscore with batters with 99SR left in the dressing room. Send them in for a bash
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby bigfluffylemon » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:49 am

sussexpob wrote:Not sure the isolation of losing hundreds is that useful in the argument. If it shows when on form he bashes people win, lose or draw. The overall SR in losses is a clear indication that there is a link between him batting slowly and England losing, the rate is too significantly lowered to come to any other conclusion. Regardless of standout examples, in games he plays when England lose, his stats show culpability.


I think that's a bit of a circular argument. Every batsman has worse stats when the side loses - that's why the side lost. If you look at the top 7, every single one of them has an SR and average that drops at least 15 points in losses compared to wins, and with many, the difference is much greater. Morgan's SR and average is worse for England than Root's when England lose. So why is it Root's fault?

I think the point that is even more relevant is - this England team is winning. A lot. What they've got is working for them. If you were trying to work out why a team keeps losing, and there's Root on 50 not out from 80 balls at the end, maybe you'd have a case. That doesn't really happen.

I had a look at the games England have lost since the start of 2016. It didn't take long, there aren't many - just 13. In that time, I can find maybe 3 examples of a situation in which, if Root had got on with it a bit more, England *might* have won, given that we had not-out batsmen at the end (although in each case we were 7 or more down and it was bowlers batting), Root's SR wasn't great, and the game was tight enough that the extra runs might have swung it:
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1073 ... a-2016-17/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1073 ... a-2016-17/
http://www.espncricinfo.com/series/1088 ... z-2017-18/

But even then, in each of those games Root scored over 50, so you could make an equally plausible case that if another weaker player had been there, England would have been 20 runs or so short and all out.

Given that in that same time England have won 37 games, 10 of 12 series and have gone to number 1 in the world, while Root has personally scored at an average of 62, SR 90, 5 player of the match awards (a total exceeded in that time only by Jason Roy with 6), I think it's drawing a very long bow to say that he's holding England back.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby budgetmeansbudget » Sun Jun 24, 2018 11:17 am

England whitewashed in the series 5-0 where the toss is concerned.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby budgetmeansbudget » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:02 pm

Oz 60-0 to 100-5.

Two stunning pieces of work from Buttler.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Adi » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:23 pm

Series whitewash very likely now.

Absence of Warner and Smith is very much evident in batting unit. So is the absence of Josh, Starc , Cummins in bowling attack.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby budgetmeansbudget » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:41 pm

What on earth was Agar thinking?
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby budgetmeansbudget » Sun Jun 24, 2018 12:45 pm

Adi wrote:Series whitewash very likely now.

Absence of Warner and Smith is very much evident in batting unit. So is the absence of Josh, Starc , Cummins in bowling attack.

They were all there in the ODI series in Australia recently and we won 4-1.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:39 pm

All out in 34 overs. This is where the old timer ODI players in the commentary box start to get dogmatic about batting the fifty overs as if the players today are naive amateurs.

Roy out already. Not going to beat Halestorm's record for England runs in a series.

I'm guessing if this is Old Trafford in a heatwave, there could be some spin and reverse swing. Might be a testing chase. If a short one.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:42 pm

POTS?

Bairstow or Mo? And Marsh?
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Sun Jun 24, 2018 1:56 pm

Root not going to see England home here...

The batters wanting to watch the football?

Pretty poor start. A chance for Hales to do himself a lot of good now.
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Re: England vs Australia ODI series

Postby Durhamfootman » Sun Jun 24, 2018 2:01 pm

Moeen's had a good game, by the looks of it, but it would appear he can't put his feet up just yet
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