The Lord's toss factor -
http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... =aggregateIn the last 10 years, Lord's has hosted 22 test matches. Of those, 15 have been won by the team batting first, with 3 draws. Only 4 have been won by the team fielding first, and only on 2 of those 4 occasions has the team winning the toss elected to field and actually won the game (and one of those was England's thrashing of a sorry West Indies 2 years ago). On the other hand, teams winning the toss and chosing to field have lost 7 of the 11 times they have done that, with 2 draws.
Interestingly, teams losing the toss and getting sent in have the highest batting average. But when teams choose to bat first, the second innings has a lower average than the third, then the fourth drops off sharply. The third innings tends to be quite productive here.
There often seems to be a temptation to send teams in at Lord's because there is often a bit of green on the first day and some clouds around, but it seems it's almost invariably a mistake. Teams think they can run through the opposition, but it rarely does as much as expected. If the batting team can weather the early movement and get through to lunch on day 1 only 2 or 3 down, they almost invariably win, as any cheap wickets you lose in the first innings tend to be more than compensated for by the massive advantage of bowling last. It's really hard to bat here in the 4th innings compared to the 3rd.
Given the fact that the pitch is reportedly already a bit brown (current rain notwithstanding), and Australia have Lyon in their ranks, if Australia win the toss and bat first, there's a pretty good chance that's the Ashes gone right there.