alfie wrote:There is a bit of "assuming" in there , Sussex
But basically I think one can argue about the size of the margin for error without dismissing it out of hand. Still I doubt we will agree on this so do not intend to go on about it at great length . In any case whatever you or indeed any enthusiastic technocrats might wish , I do not expect it to be removed in the foreseeable future
Without swamping you with the calculations, if you take the sort of benchmarks that hawk-eyes accuracy has been tested on, using the old cameras and tennis serves up to 145mph, the system at that point is plotting the actual movement every 2.16 meters, and maintains a 2-3mm accuracy. For a delivery like that of Lyon to Stokes where it pitches (which you can lose anywhere between say 45-55% percent of the original pace to air resistance and impact with the ground) from pitching to impact roughly 2 meters away, with the new fps cameras, that distance reduces to 3.27 cms per recorded plot. A 98.9% decrease in the "guesswork" the system has to make.
So yes, we cant do anything but assume about the actual figure, but if the system is spitting out a 3mm error and becomes 98.9% more efficent, then by even conservative guesses we are talking about a practical reality where the system is about as close to 100% accurate as physically viable. If you were to implement a system where umpires calls were linked to the actual margin of error, you'd limit their usage to the pretty freak occurrences of where the ball hit or missed my a distance of micrometers.
Even if where were to assume accuracy hasnt improved with technological advances, we still have to acknowledge that if a ball is found to be hitting the last 3mm of a stump or bail, then the system is likely to be 99.999% accurate, and that anything above this threshold is presenting plainly wrong decisions in batsmans favour. There is no justification for that.
It would be the equivalent of saying in football "well the ball is proven to have crossed the line 100% certainly, but as it didnt land a meter over the line, no goal"....