by sussexpob » Sat Nov 23, 2019 11:40 am
NZ have almost certainly batted England out of the game now. Its hard to see how England can turn this round, not because they are so far out the game that they cant, but because the impetuous will be on them to cover their lines of retreat for the draw before going for the win. And scoring rates on this pitch have been very slow, so I cant see them wracking up a good size total in double quick time to allow them both the option of protecting the game and trying to win it.
At the moment its easy for NZ; bat as long as possible, and win the match by bowling England out cheaply in the second innings. If NZ get a lead of a 100 by the end of the morning session, which considering scoring rates and the fact that they have an established partnership unbroken, looks possible, then you;d think England have to spent at least the afternoon batting towards parity, although my guess will be they will dig in and desperately try to keep their partnerships going. With scoring rates in the 2.7 zone for both teams, it only works out at 240 runs per day coming off the bat, so in order for England to get simply to parity we are talking in this scenario they make it with about 15-20 overs left of the day. Then probably have 50 in the bank tomorrow evening.
Given a lead of 50, without wickets into account by this point, if you bat at a quicker rate of say 100 runs a session (and with a slender lead, the slogging isnt going to arrive until the match is safe), one session down your 150 ahead but NZ have an easy target score in 66 overs. One session left you are 250 ahead and NZ cant win in 33 overs and wont try, but your asking for a 10 wickets in 30 odd overs with a batting side just looking to drop anchor, so draw is almost certain. Go half way into the day, that would be 200 ish in 45 overs, which is too dooable for any captain to take on in test 1 of a series. Its nearly there, but probably subtract a handful of overs to take the RR into a more certain draw territory. None of this leaves England in a great position to win, and that assumes they can achieve a vastly better scoring rate than both teams have managed on this pitch. If using the going rate for the game, the point at which England would secure the draw would almost make it pointless to send NZ into bat, theyd be no time left.
So yeah, at this point for a result in England's favour, they need NZ to fail with both innings and be able to bat out the best part of 4 sessions, followed by a rampage in the last. NZ just need to take this lead into something handy, and bowl England out in a days worth of play to have a chance.
But draw is favourite for me at this point. England are the underdogs on the result.
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