The Ashes: Australia in England 16th Jun - 31 July

[bigfluffylemon]

Not sure how we haven't got a thread for this, but here we go:

First Test 6–20 June 2023, Edgbaston Cricket Ground, Birmingham

Second Test 28 June–2 July 2023, Lord's, London

Third Test 6–10 July 2023, Headingley Cricket Ground, Leeds

Fourth Test 19–23 July 2023, Old Trafford Cricket Ground, Manchester

Fifth Test 27–31 July 2023, The Oval, London

Squads

England
Ben Stokes (c), Ollie Pope (vc, wk), Moeen Ali, James Anderson, Jonny Bairstow (wk), Stuart Broad, Harry Brook, Zak Crawley, Ben Duckett, Dan Lawrence, Jack Leach, Matthew Potts, Ollie Robinson, Joe Root, Josh Tongue, Chris Woakes, Mark Wood

Australia
Pat Cummins (c), Steve Smith (vc), Scott Boland, Alex Carey (wk), Cameron Green, Marcus Harris, Josh Hazlewood, Travis Head, Josh Inglis (wk), Usman Khawaja, Marnus Labuschagne, Nathan Lyon, Mitchell Marsh, Todd Murphy, Michael Neser, Jimmy Peirson (wk), Matt Renshaw, Mitchell Starc, David Warner

The schedule seems completely bonkers. 5 tests in 6 and a half weeks (and Australia just played a test too). England are clearly planning squad rotation, at least among the fast bowlers, and it would be surprising if Australia managed to play the same seam attack for all five games. You'd have to expect injuries to come into it (England have already lost Archer and Leach).

This series does seem to be characterised by more excitement than many recent ones, due to the unpredictability of what's about to happen. On paper, and the cricketing logic of the past, Australia should be favourites - they are the world test champions, have been consistently strong for the last couple of years, have good strength in depth of their bowling, a formidable batting line up, and man for man a better playing XI than England. Yet Stokes' England have been tearing up the record books and all cricketing logic in the last 12 months. Add to that that even when England have been at their worst they are hard to beat at home (four years ago a pretty poor England side still held on for 2-2, although it did require the second miracle of Headingley to achieve that) - and they're definitely well beyond their worst.

So the stage is set for a cracker. Let's hope it lives up to the hype.

[bigfluffylemon]

Broad apparently gets the nod over Wood. Given his (and Anderson's) record at the ground, seems hard to argue, although Australia did get the better of A&B here last time out.

England: Crawley, Duckett, Pope, Root, Brook, Stokes, Bairstow, Ali, Robinson, Broad, Anderson.

Australia have a very settled XI, likely to be Warner, Khawaja, Labuschange, Smith, Head, Green, Carey, Cummins, Starc, Lyon, Hazlewood/Boland - that last seam slot the only question mark. How do you leave either of them out (personally at Edgbaston I'd play both and leave out Starc).

[alfie]

Reckon Australia will play the WTC XI and keep Hazlewood on ice for now. Have to play Boland , surely ? And Starc brings a point of difference - and rather stands out in a slightly dodgy tail.

England might have picked Wood I guess , for extra pace. But have gone for three very reliable seamers to start. As you say , BFL , Australia prevailed here four years ago : but the fact that Anderson broke down in the first twenty minutes had a lot to do with that I think.

In 2015 , A & B did Australia over nicely , with a bit of help from Finn. Though perhaps a slight cause for anxiety in that Anderson actually broke down in that match too - albeit well into the Australian second innings. I know things are sometimes thought to happen in threes ; but surely lightning couldn't strike again , could it ?

[Gingerfinch]

I fear England may come unstuck this summer. The openers may struggle against Cummins and co, add to that our potentially injured bowling attack. Then there's Ali, who will chip in with bat and ball but I doubt will cause too many sleepless nights for Smith and co.
Talking of bowling, is Stokes fit enough to bowl? I take it he will bowl short burst, if so.
At least the sun is out so we will see a positive result in 5 days time!

[bigfluffylemon]

I fear England may come unstuck this summer. The openers may struggle against Cummins and co, add to that our potentially injured bowling attack. Then there's Ali, who will chip in with bat and ball but I doubt will cause too many sleepless nights for Smith and co.
Talking of bowling, is Stokes fit enough to bowl? I take it he will bowl short burst, if so.
At least the sun is out so we will see a positive result in 5 days time!

I don't think anyone is expecting any draws unless it rains.

[bigfluffylemon]

Reckon Australia will play the WTC XI and keep Hazlewood on ice for now. Have to play Boland , surely ? And Starc brings a point of difference - and rather stands out in a slightly dodgy tail.

England might have picked Wood I guess , for extra pace. But have gone for three very reliable seamers to start. As you say , BFL , Australia prevailed here four years ago : but the fact that Anderson broke down in the first twenty minutes had a lot to do with that I think.

In 2015 , A & B did Australia over nicely , with a bit of help from Finn. Though perhaps a slight cause for anxiety in that Anderson actually broke down in that match too - albeit well into the Australian second innings. I know things are sometimes thought to happen in threes ; but surely lightning couldn't strike again , could it ?

I'd forgotten Anderson went down last time out. Certainly a factor, as was his absence from the rest of the series.

I'll be surprised if Wood doesn't come in at Lord's.

[bigfluffylemon]

On the subject of Anderson breaking down, I know we have this debate now and again and I fail to convince anyone, but I still think there should be some form of substitution allowed for injuries. We have concussion subs now with the approval of the match referee, could that not be extended to stress fractures, muscle strains etc.? It has always seemed unfair to me that a team that has a player break down before lunch on day 1 then effectively has to play with 10 men for the best part of five days. There can't be that many wins for teams that lose a player in the first innings. To me it diminishes the competition if one team is at such a disadvantage due to nothing more than bad luck.

[alfie]

On the subject of Anderson breaking down, I know we have this debate now and again and I fail to convince anyone, but I still think there should be some form of substitution allowed for injuries. We have concussion subs now with the approval of the match referee, could that not be extended to stress fractures, muscle strains etc.? It has always seemed unfair to me that a team that has a player break down before lunch on day 1 then effectively has to play with 10 men for the best part of five days. There can't be that many wins for teams that lose a player in the first innings. To me it diminishes the competition if one team is at such a disadvantage due to nothing more than bad luck.

Yes it does seem a bit unfair that , for instance , England played effectively one man down for five days at Edgbaston ; while in the next match at Lord's when Smith was hit on the head he was able to be replaced by Labuschagne mid-match.

I recall thinking facetiously that they should have arranged for Jimmy to trip on the boundary rope and hit his head walking off so someone could have been drafted in...

Trouble is I guess that unlike concussion protocols , other injuries are a little difficult to measure up and some tactical skullduggery might be feared if that door were left open ?

[sussexpob]

Going down both orders.....

The openers feel pretty equal. Warner and Khawaja might wrack up runs if the conditions are tame, but both have been terrible in English conditions. Khawaja has improved as a test bat in recent years, but his away record is boosted by two pancakes in Pakistan, so it doesnt mean much. On the England side, Crawley has been rubbish, and Duckett as yet has not faced an attack of this quality. Calling this a tie.

Top order - Marnus/Smith v Pope/Root.... no contest. Not sure there has ever been on paper a 3/4 combo with so many runs (average of 57 + 60), and while Pope has improved recently, and Root has always been quality, it cant match up to the Aussies. One worry for England; if Marnus has a weakness, its to spinners, and England have lost Leach. Last time out he didnt hit a century, but made 4 x 50s. Smith has scored nearly 2000 runs in England so no questions about doing it here. I'd estimate England will lose at least one game from runs in this bracket.

Middle order - Brooks and Head play the game in similar ways, both wont be hanging around, both are going to play shots. Last week, Head survived a ropey period early on to hit his way out of trouble, but he's not always going to get that luck. Brooks is still an unknown capacity. I'd take Brooks in England, I think unless the top order put on mountains of runs, Head will struggle. Stokes v Green is more of a contrast. Green a very old fashioned grinder, Stokes the flamboyant match winner. I take Stokes with the bat, but think that if Green gets the ball, his style is suited to English pitches, and I take him as the bowler out the two (especially with Stokes fitness in question). Bairstow v Carey is about equal on paper, but I'd take Bairstow after last year - although I dont know what Bairstow we are getting. England slight advantage here.

Spinner - No contest here. I can see Mo retiring after the 3rd test, and Lyon chipping in with a few wickets were necessary.

Pace bowlers - Giving this to Australia based on the schedule. Anderson and Broad match up to Cummins/Starc in English conditions, but their combined age and a tight schedule does not bode well for them making all 5 games. I'd take a fit Hazlewood and Boland over the other options England can muster. I personally think Boland could be the stand out bowler in this series, his accuracy and presentation of the seam make me believe he is the perfect bowler for English conditions... I would be shocked if Australia didn't pick him

So, Australia maybe favourites in my eyes. But its going to be tight.

[alfie]

Largely agree with Sussex's summary above. Only thing is I think one player has been missed in there : Robinson. I reckon he has improved out of sight and could be deadly in home conditions (of course we don't yet know how the pitches will actually turn out. But still) His promise is the main reason - apart from my natural optimism why I fancy England to prevail. In a tight battle , indeed.

But obviously there are a lot of things that could swing either way : imagine (not for a moment wanting it to happen , I hasten to add ) Smith breaking an arm early in the series. Or Crawley suddenly discovering his inner Gooch

Can't wait for this to start.

[sussexpob]

I totally forgot about Ollie Robinson, tbh haha. Indeed, that does balance up things somewhat, but doesn't change my opinion overall.

Bit of a tough watch for the Aussies.... ready for sleep deprivation all summer, Alfie?

[sussexpob]

But obviously there are a lot of things that could swing either way : imagine (not for a moment wanting it to happen , I hasten to add ) Smith breaking an arm early in the series.

A few English newspapers reported that Smith got wrapped on the hand in the nets yesterday, and was in some discomfort, with pictures showing the medical staff hovering over him while he grimaces. I guess he's ok, and the press are printing something out of nothing.

[alfie]

Certainly gearing up for some odd sleeping hours ! Had a bit of practice with the WTC and watching some of that Surrey run chase last night...but haven't done a full 3.30 am for a while .

Only June/July though . Not going to sit up for The Hundred

[Durhamfootman]

I rather think that Australia will win for the first time in 22 years, up over

Had they been playing the England side that went to Pakistan and NZ then I'd go with England, but Stokes is on one leg, Mo hasn't bowled more than 4 overs for a thousand years, Bairstow ought to strengthen the batting, but he's had no cricket, may not be quite fit and will drop all the extra runs England will get from leaving out Foakes and probably drop more. Root and Brook have been away at the IPL... Root sat around twiddling his thumbs mostly and apart from one very big score, Brook got out early every time. And then there's Crawley........ the elephant in everybody's room.

I can't imagine that the series will be one-sided either way, but this England have been making series one sided for a year. Australia have a squad with more experience so I don't see them getting sucked into doing things the way England want. If England do blow up early in the series, they'll absolutely keep doing the same things the same way in the next test, and the next, and Australia might end up strolling to a series win

we'll see

I still think that if England had toured Australia last winter, they'd have scared the bejesus out of the Aussies, silenced the home support, shoved it down the throat of the Aussie media and won the ashes........... but Australia do now fully understand what they're up against, injuries have changed things markedly and I just can't see that happening here.

[GarlicJam]

Reckon Australia will play the WTC XI and keep Hazlewood on ice for now. Have to play Boland , surely ? And Starc brings a point of difference - and rather stands out in a slightly dodgy tail.

My view on the matter exactly