by Arthur Crabtree » Sun Oct 27, 2013 3:26 pm
His assessment on Swann seems the most optimistic.
If I was an Aussie fan, I wouldn't feel encouraged by Watson and Smith's hundreds at the Oval as much as he is. I don't think these runs negate the problems they had in the rest of our summer. For me, Australia's competitiveness in the last series was largely down to Ryan Harris' superb bowling. If he's injured, or can't replicate this, they Australia suddenly have a big new problem. Against that, Clarke can be expected to score more runs at home.
I guess it gives Australia a big boost to know they will almost certainly win one of the five Tests, at Perth. So they are probably 1-0 with four to play already. Unless it rains.
I can't add this as a new post as intended, because of the time jumping:
Cook>Rogers: Rogers didn't really have as good a series as seems to have been suggested in reviews. Or Cook as bad. Both only went past 50 three times. Cook disappointed against previously high standards, but Rogers was no more than encouraging.
Root=Warner: While both have plenty of potential, it is difficult to predict which will be most influential in the coming series. I'd guess Root, and believe he will be a Test success.
Trott>Watson: Both only went past 50 once in the summer. Watson's 418 runs in the series nearly gave him an =, but really those runs hardly hurt England. Trott has much more of a pedigree, and he batted like a millionaire in the last Ashes, before getting out rather profligately too often.
Clarke>Pietersen: Both will probably go down as national greats, but KP will struggle to match Clarke's record at home in this series. If he goes close, that will be a big boost for England's chances. Clarke, of course, may be unfit.
Bell>Smith: It would be wrong to write off Bell's poor two years under the influence of more recent events. But Bell excels under familiar circumstances (in my opinion) and Smith tends to float like a butterfly, and sting like one. Bell is very familiar with the Australians.
Bailey>Bairstow: Not much evidence to go one here... but Bailey looks to have the right stuff and Bairstow's technical problems resemble a whack-a-mole machine. To the armchair kneejerker, Bailey is shaping up to be a big potential player in the series, even before Ricky Ponting has handed him his cap.
Prior>Haddin: Haddin is a tough character and not to be underestimated, but Prior is a better keeper and batter, which pretty much sews up the comparison.
Swann>Lyon: I wouldn't be surprised if Lyon models himself on Swann, and he may even go on to do as well as the Englishman. But Swann has a lot of nouse right now, and he didn't seem inconvenienced by his elbow last summer. And he'll score some useful runs.
Finn=Johnson: Too much of a wildcard match up to judge. Maybe I should give this one to Mitch for the two fifties he'll score.
Siddle>Broad: Siddle is the most underrated pace bowler in Test cricket. It'll be interesting to see if he runs out of steam though, and Broad tends to improve as series go on. Broad will score two fifties.
Harris>Anderson: Anderson is England's best fast bowler, but Harris is the most dangerous on either side. If Australia are going to win, Harris has to get through the series. I think Jimmy peaked on the last our of Australia, when he was brilliant. He also does too much work in a four man attack.
I always say that everybody's right.
