Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Cast Your Vote!

Name the winners of the Champions Trophy.

Australia
6
26%
Bangladesh
1
4%
England
6
26%
India
2
9%
New Zealand
0
No votes
Pakistan
4
17%
South Africa
4
17%
Sri Lanka
0
No votes
 
Total votes : 23

Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon Apr 10, 2017 12:08 pm

It would really depend on the conditions.
last time around in 2013 india spinners enjoyed the larger grounds and took a lot of wickets.
plus with it being a short tournament essentially any of the 5 teams could win it since momentum would play a part.
last time around Jadeja took 12 wickets for an average of 12 with Econ rate of 3.75.
Ashwin 8 wickets for an average of 22 with econ rate of 4.22

which ever teams gets wickets during the middle overs will most likely win the competition.
Reckon Spinners might play a crucial role again, especially in the middle overs.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby bigfluffylemon » Mon Apr 10, 2017 11:47 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Good stuff. After the last WC when they didn't even make it to the wedding, England dream of being the bridesmaids.

Agree with the predictions. Of course, something different will happen, but these seem right as things stand going into the competition.


Cheers AC.

I agree that fielding can be critical. Again, Australia, South Africa and England ought to have the edge there given recent form, although none of them have a top quality wicket keeper the slip catching is usually pretty good.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:35 am

not really sure slip catching will play a role in ODI.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:39 am

It seems likely to play a part in the first ten overs, and maybe for the spinners after that. Slips seem to be coming back into the game in the last five years as teams realise that with little means of slowing the scoring, taking a wicket is more paramount than ever.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Tue Apr 11, 2017 8:53 am

Ball needs to move for the slips to come in though.
with the white kookabura hardly ever swinging these days and if they do hardly more than 1-3 overs.
although I do see what you are saying since bowlers likes Willey etc tend to get early wickets but really saying slips catching will play a crucial role is probably wide of the mark considering outside the 10 overs not sure any team will have a slip most of the time.
Doubt any spinner will have a slip either.

End of the day not really sure Slip catching will play a part, although Catching in general might.

plus don't bowlers often bowl the inswinger more than the outswinger considering the outswinger can be more expensive and annoying for the bowler since a perfect outswinger could be edged for a 4 with no chance of catching it or hit through the covers, where as the in swinger brings LBW and bowled plus generally can be tough to score runs off.
the likes of david Willey and Bhuvaneshwar kumar tend to bowl more in swingers.
Giving ODI batsman room to play shots is a bad idea.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:34 am

My impression is that it swings for about up to ten overs in England, 5 and less in other countries, plus the batter can make mistakes. But the point really is that the batter is going to hit the ball to the ropes with little impediment, so the chances when they come, have to be taken. It was NZ going into the last WC who started using a slip more often, particularly before the batting PP, recognising the most practical way of stopping carnage was to get the set batter out before the last 15 overs. If that strategy is in place, how galling if the chance goes down, particularly if it's Buttler, Mo'hit, ABDV, Slapsie, etc.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Tue Apr 11, 2017 9:54 am

I often hear about how weak the England bowling attack is, but I tend to weigh that against how many other attacks ship a lot of runs towards the end of games (and English pitches have been particularly batter friendly).

I had a look at the bowler stats since the last WC, including bowlers with a minimum 500 balls bowled. I set parameters on two levels. There are good bowlers, and star bowlers, the latter marked with an asterisk. I included games only between the CT eight. Of course, all influencing factors aren't equal, but it gives an impression. I set lower econs for spinners because they usually don't bowl at the end. Factors are SRs and econs.

Australia

Hazlewood*
Faulkner*
Hastings*
Starc*
Cummins*

Bangladesh

Mustafizur*
Mortaza*
Taskin
Shakib

England

Woakes
Willey

India

Mishra*
Axar Patel

New Zealand

Boult*
Milne*
Henry
Santner

Pakistan

Amir*
Hasan
Imad

South Africa

Abbott*
Rabada*
Steyn*
Tahir*
Morris
Phehlukwayo

Obviously these won't all be playing in the same games, but it does suggest/confirm England and India have problems with their bowlers in ODIs, and Australia and South Africa have good options.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:02 am

not sure india even played their best 11 yet after the world cup.
but yeah agree about england and india having issues with the bowlers.
Also happy to agree that Catching will be important although would argue all the catching is important than pin point slip catching.

be interesting to see how india bowlers go in the tournament considering in the last two ICC Tournaments they been the best bowling attack which is very odd occasion considering at both times no one even expected them to take wickets cheaply or consistently.
in paper would be saying at the moment india got better bowlers as well compared to the 2013 or 2015 team.
batting not in the same level though.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:10 am

Yes, a few India bowlers haven't bowled enough balls to qualify. Which makes them less of a known quality, but also suggests they are a bit untested.

For England, Rashid scored quite well on SR, but his econ is pretty gruesome. Mo scored well on econ, but he has stopped taking wickets. Plunkett scored well on SR, but gives a lot of runs away. Topley scores well on both but has bowled too few balls.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:12 am

http://stats.espncricinfo.com/ci/engine ... ;type=team
in the last two ICC 50 over events.
india taken 122 wickets at an average of 22.62 Econ of 4.87
Also only lost 1 game as well.
probably not a surprise that England and Bangladesh have the worst record.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Dr Cricket » Tue Apr 11, 2017 10:19 am

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Yes, a few India bowlers haven't bowled enough balls to qualify. Which makes them less of a known quality, but also suggests they are a bit untested.

For England, Rashid scored quite well on SR, but his econ is pretty gruesome. Mo scored well on econ, but he has stopped taking wickets. Plunkett scored well on SR, but gives a lot of runs away. Topley scores well on both but has bowled too few balls.


Be interesting to see what india first team bowling attack is considering Mishra, Kuldeep Yadav, Ashwin and Jadeja will all be in the mix for the spinners spots, not actually sure Ashwin or Jadeja are certain starters for it, one of Yadav and mishra will be travelling to England probably the one with the best ipl Season going to the tournament.

For the pace you expect Umesh yadav, Shami to be certain starters with the pace, with Bhuvi likely to be the 3rd seam option with Hardik pandya likely to be the 4th option and the all rounder.

Not really sure the bowling is the problem for india, batting looks dodgy especially if Rohit and Kohli fail.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Making_Splinters » Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:07 am

At the end of the day, it's pretty hard to call which side will come out on top. For me India, South Africa, Australia and England are all pretty much on par with each other with New Zealand not far behind. England don't really have a home advantage as most sides have a good pace attack, and they all have the batsmen capable of making 380+ scores.

You can get far too much into the stats to try and make a case for any side, but on what will likely be relatively flat pitches, they can all beat each other. It really comes down to form of the key players in each side more than anything else.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby hopeforthebest » Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:18 am

To steal from Bill Clinton. It's the weather stupid.
Work expands to fill the time available, so why do today what can be put off until tomorrow.


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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Making_Splinters » Tue Apr 11, 2017 11:45 am

I don't really think the weather will have a huge impact as all the major players have a good pace bowling department and aside from Willey none of our bowlers are swing specialists.
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Re: Who will win the Champions Trophy?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Tue Apr 11, 2017 12:12 pm

Making_Splinters wrote:At the end of the day, it's pretty hard to call which side will come out on top. For me India, South Africa, Australia and England are all pretty much on par with each other with New Zealand not far behind. England don't really have a home advantage as most sides have a good pace attack, and they all have the batsmen capable of making 380+ scores.

You can get far too much into the stats to try and make a case for any side, but on what will likely be relatively flat pitches, they can all beat each other. It really comes down to form of the key players in each side more than anything else.


Fair enough. I'd separate five of the teams from the other three though.
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