Duckworth Lewis

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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby meninblue » Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:03 am

Dr Robert wrote:
clubcricketeradi wrote:
Dr Robert wrote:
clubcricketeradi wrote:
Dr Robert wrote:Imagine going to watch a 50 over game, which changes into a t20 match because they think it might rain for an hour. I'd want my money back.


That is from the customers point of view and whether the customers want money back or not should not justify the use of this DL method.Solutions need to be found to that point as well.The ticket revenues are probably not even 5% to broadcast rights, so even if they refund full money back to ticket purchasers, it will not make much difference.The ground owners, the respective boards and ICC should find a way to share profits to cover up this loss for the grounds.


It's not just about the money, although the paying public are important in all this. To change a 50 over game into a 20 over one on the premise that it might rain is illogical. one, it might not rain, two, it may do for half an hour, in which case no harm done, and three, D/L is not perfect but is a pretty fair way of deciding a match.


In some cases we wont get a DL match. So it is better to go for a T20 atleast if rainfall is highly probable.I think one example of such occurrence was during CT2013 where a T20 could have been played .Sometimes we might miss the opportunity of a 50 over match, thats true.But rather than DL being used in 40 overs match, i would personally prefer a cricket match decide a result.


If rain is around the corner, ie, about to rain, and likely to most of the day, then yes fair enough. But regarding the recent match between India and NZ. The right thing was done.


They could have shortened it to 30 overs, 35 overs if not 20 depending on forecast.At least that would allow both teams to play well and better team would have won.Here after scoring more runs in less balls we lost.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby Gingerfinch » Thu Jan 23, 2014 9:40 am

The best team did win, always does ;)

Thing is, they would be guessing on how much rain was coming. They could have said 30 overs per side, and still been faced with a no result, or D/L.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby D/L » Thu Jan 23, 2014 11:54 am

Blimey, is this still going on? Shouldn't be surprised, I suppose. Every time there is an apparent anomaly thrown up by Duckworth / Lewis, even when there is no real one, there will always be complaints and calls for changes. The call to change an ODI to a T20 match half way through it is a little bizarre though.

If there were a better system, it would have been found and implemented a long time ago.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby Gingerfinch » Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:04 pm

Judging by your moniker, I thought you may be a fan of duckworth/lewis. Apart from roof's on grounds, it's the best way in dealing with rain.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby GarlicJam » Thu Jan 23, 2014 12:51 pm

It's often the same thing, Adi - when your team wins in a D/L affected match, the system is pretty good. When your team loses, it's crap, unfair and needs to change.

I agree with D/L - his system is the best we have, atm. Find a better one and people will consider it.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby meninblue » Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:30 pm

GarlicJam wrote:It's often the same thing, Adi - when your team wins in a D/L affected match, the system is pretty good. When your team loses, it's crap, unfair and needs to change.

I agree with D/L - his system is the best we have, atm. Find a better one and people will consider it.


No, even if we win by DL it does not makes the method good.It will still be fully based on assumptions and moreover the prediction of target is made on basis of these assumptions.15 runs in first over should not be considered as 750 runs in 50 overs.That is simply not going to happen in cricket as cricket is not as straightforward as mathematics.

As far as finding better system is needed, i can only say that definitely a better method is needed. ICC should take on responsibility to find a solution to this.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby Gingerfinch » Thu Jan 23, 2014 1:37 pm

clubcricketeradi wrote:
GarlicJam wrote:It's often the same thing, Adi - when your team wins in a D/L affected match, the system is pretty good. When your team loses, it's crap, unfair and needs to change.

I agree with D/L - his system is the best we have, atm. Find a better one and people will consider it.


No, even if we win by DL it does not makes the method good.It will still be fully based on assumptions and moreover the prediction of target is made on basis of these assumptions.15 runs in first over should not be considered as 750 runs in 50 overs.That is simply not going to happen in cricket as cricket is not as straightforward as mathematics.

As far as finding better system is needed, i can only say that definitely a better method is needed. ICC should take on responsibility to find a solution to this.


Is that how they work it out?
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby D/L » Thu Jan 23, 2014 2:11 pm

clubcricketeradi wrote:
GarlicJam wrote:It's often the same thing, Adi - when your team wins in a D/L affected match, the system is pretty good. When your team loses, it's crap, unfair and needs to change.

I agree with D/L - his system is the best we have, atm. Find a better one and people will consider it.


No, even if we win by DL it does not makes the method good.It will still be fully based on assumptions and moreover the prediction of target is made on basis of these assumptions.15 runs in first over should not be considered as 750 runs in 50 overs.That is simply not going to happen in cricket as cricket is not as straightforward as mathematics.

As far as finding better system is needed, i can only say that definitely a better method is needed. ICC should take on responsibility to find a solution to this.

It seems that it is a replacement system, based upon assumptions, that is being called for. Duckworth / Lewis is not based on assumptions; it is based upon arithmetic and it is that which has gained it its widespread acceptance amongst people who realise that such a system can have no bias towards one team or the other which, thankfully, is most people.

Even the ICC would not waste time and money on finding a solution to a problem that does not exist and one which only a handful of people see as a problem.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby meninblue » Thu Jan 23, 2014 3:48 pm

Dr Robert wrote:
clubcricketeradi wrote:
GarlicJam wrote:It's often the same thing, Adi - when your team wins in a D/L affected match, the system is pretty good. When your team loses, it's crap, unfair and needs to change.

I agree with D/L - his system is the best we have, atm. Find a better one and people will consider it.


No, even if we win by DL it does not makes the method good.It will still be fully based on assumptions and moreover the prediction of target is made on basis of these assumptions.15 runs in first over should not be considered as 750 runs in 50 overs.That is simply not going to happen in cricket as cricket is not as straightforward as mathematics.

As far as finding better system is needed, i can only say that definitely a better method is needed. ICC should take on responsibility to find a solution to this.


Is that how they work it out?


That is just a example to show mathematics formulas or calculations cannot be used in cricket because there are so many variables in match that nothing can predict the scores.Applying even constant mathematical logic will yield very bad predictions. DL is indeed a prediction.it is not the actual runs scored or the actual target set . Even the WASP which is a new concept shown nowadays during matches, developed after lot of relevant research is said to be just a prediction which may or may not happen.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby DiligentDefence » Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:09 pm

The only completely fair way is to abandon all matches that are interrupted by rain after the first innings has started. Anything else will have to have some element of prediction or unfairness. I am not advocating this by the way just stating it.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby meninblue » Thu Jan 23, 2014 4:13 pm

Why is it assuming that resources percentages calculated on paper will be same as that on field as per the resource table.

What if one batsman is injured.Does DL uses that information while calculating effect of resources left ? Is every resource left going to perform similarly .

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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby D/L » Thu Jan 23, 2014 5:55 pm

DiligentDefence wrote:The only completely fair way is to abandon all matches that are interrupted by rain after the first innings has started. Anything else will have to have some element of prediction or unfairness. I am not advocating this by the way just stating it.

I don't think anyone, let alone the ICC, would advocate such a thing, particularly as there is a system in place that provides for a fair outcome and as much play as the weather allows. OK, so it can't predict the effect of injuries or a player feeling a little bit off-colour etc., but I think most people can live with that.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:26 pm

There's a limit to how much you can predict Adi. You're asking for a destiny machine that lets us see into the future. The ICC should employ Greek gods to see the fate of people... There's no gain in wondering about the possibility of future injuries or dropped catches. As DD says, the only really fair thing to do is to abandon the match, but who really wants that? In a sport at mercy of the weather, DL allows cricket to be played. You can't pre shorten matches, because the weather is unpredictable. I think it has been a good thing.

Teams usually bat second if they think there will be rain, so in their match with NZ they were quite well placed. They knew what they had to do to win, whereas the NZ innings was unplannable. I don't think many will feel the outcome wasn't acceptable, if a little unsatisfying.
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby D/L » Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:29 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:There's a limit to how much you can predict Adi. You're asking for a destiny machine that lets us see into the future. The ICC should employ Greek gods to see the fate of people... There's no gain in wondering about the possibility of future injuries or dropped catches...

Yes, or a new breed of super computer perhaps, but could it complete its calculations before the scheduled finish time of the match?
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Re: Duckworth Lewis

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Thu Jan 23, 2014 6:34 pm

Extrapolating the runs/etc of one over isn't an issue, because there has to be 20 overs to make a match. I don't actually know what a straw man means, but I suspect that may be one.
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