D/L wrote:Well done to the Windies. If any team were to get to the semi-finals at England’s expense, I’m glad it was they.
However, tonight’s game once again calls into question the system used to determine the target for a team batting second in a rain-affected match, where the number of overs is so drastically reduced. There are many points on which the system can be criticised but I’d make just two, which seem to be the most salient.
Firstly, the chances of losing all 10 wickets in a 9 over slog are close to zero, which means a team can abandon all caution in the run chase. The team batting first does not have this luxury and Duckworth/Lewis does not address this iniquity.
The second point, which could be more easily addressed, concerns the power-play. In a full 20 over innings, 30% of the overs are delivered with only 2 fielders allowed outside the inner circle. Tonight, however, when 3 overs were allocated to the power-play, this rose to 33%. Surely, in the interests of fairness, the power-play in the Windies’ innings should have ended after 4 balls of the 3rd over. Perhaps though, even this simple calculation is beyond the wit of the time-serving dullards at the ICC.
Any road up, never mind. At the end of the day, it's only Twenty20!
Well the chance of losing all 10 wickets in a 20 over match is very low. How often have sides been bowled out in this tournament? I count 5 instances in 22 matches or basically 23%. Of those Scotland got bowled out once, the Dutch once, England once, Ireland once and NZ once. So it's very, very unlikely that teams from full member countries will ever be bowled out in 20 overs either (just twice in 13 matches involving only full member or 15% of those matches) so the chance of losing all 10 wickets in 9 overs shouldn't have anything to do with the target or the system used to determine it. What kind of system would it be if it determined a target based around the idea of teams being able lose all 10 wickets in 9 overs when around 80% of the time teams never lose all 10 wickets in 20 overs anyway?
It would seem from the fact that 10 wickets have been taken from full member sides in only 15% of matches involving full members, that full member teams do indeed have the luxury of slogging with abandon (isn't that what T20 is all about anyway?). Why wouldn't you slog when there is 85% chance that at the end of 20 overs there will still be a wicket left standing that you can risk? And didn't England, WI, South Africa, India, Pakistan and New Zealand all have a slog at sometime throughout this tournament to get scores approaching 180-210 (or thereabouts if they hadn't reached their target before then with a high run-rate)? England made 185 off 20 overs once, and South Africa made 183 and 211. In all 3 of those instances they were going at more than 9 an over. Certainly they must consitute a "slog" if 80 off 9 overs (for less than 9 an over) is considered a slog.
Had WI really abandoned all caution in this chase they would surely have lost since it was the calm approach of Shiv and Sarwan that saw them to the target and not the wild slogging of Fletcher, Simmons, Gayle and Pollard (that kind of play resulted in consistent wickets for the fielding team didn't it?)
The second point, which could be more easily addressed, concerns the power-play. In a full 20 over innings, 30% of the overs are delivered with only 2 fielders allowed outside the inner circle. Tonight, however, when 3 overs were allocated to the power-play, this rose to 33%. Surely, in the interests of fairness, the power-play in the Windies’ innings should have ended after 4 balls of the 3rd over. Perhaps though, even this simple calculation is beyond the wit of the time-serving dullards at the ICC.
What? Have a power-play end
during an over? Why? Because of an artifact of mathematics? Surely if they are going to look at having equal percentages based on a reduction in overs then everything should be reduced accordingly.
Thus if the power-play must constitute exactly 30% of the innings, then the target itself should be determined based on the first-innings' run-rate times the reduced number of overs (can't be fair to reduce the batting team's power-plays by the exact figure and keep the target higher than a corresponding reduction would entail). In which case the target should have been 72.45 runs exactly. Don't see how it's unfair to finish the 3rd over as the power-play when the required run-rate ends up being higher under D/L. Had WI started with a full 20 overs, their required rate would have been 8.05 not 8.89.
Also to be really fair any system which ended up using the power-plays down to the individual balls of an over, should really call for a reduction in the number of batsmen and wickets and fielders for 20 overs to start with. After all 10 wickets can be taken in 50 overs but are unlikely to be taken in 20 overs. Thus teams should be all out at 4 wickets down logically if we are going to carry over percentages.
Of course the really tricky thing is that 30% of 9 overs is 2.7 which when done exactly would give 2 overs and 4.2 balls. We could take this all the way and say that for a fifth of the time while the bowler is running up in his fifth delivery the fieldsmen must be under power-play restrictions.....