Spot Fixing?

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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby yuppie » Mon May 28, 2018 9:19 pm

The Australian India test in question was a slow scoring match. And bet on the first and last over off the session being a low scoring one? Really, i mean com on. Batsman taking no risk in last over of session shocker. And how did they know the batsman would still be batting at the end of the session?

I could believe it if they said a wicket would fall, or bet on more than 5 runs being scored. But seriously this is poor reporting.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 9:25 pm

depends on the run lines and what the odds were though.
if the session lines were low then it could be very abnormal to score that low or like wise very odd to score quickly.
impossible to deduce anything till we know what the lines are and what the predictions were but they had 3 bet and 3 tips for each session including the manda.

believe the tips were this
1-10 overs
10-20 overs
20-30 overs
manda

for each test.
would be very difficult to predict correctly all that twice correctly by fluke, would be tough to do it on one go as well, especially when the run lines have ranges and generally they been set to be 50-50 odds of happening.
From my calculation the odds of getting that right in one session is 6.25 percent and becomes 1.25 percent to predict two session.
Hard to say if it was tough to predict without knowing the lines or what the actual tip was since one of the tip could have been overs as well, australia openers scored quickly, so the fix could have been to be slow after the fast start, likewise it could have been when Maxwell was hitting 6s or boundaries, could have been sudden scoring streak by the batsman, it isn't always going to be unders betting if anything overs betting is more better because Wides and fluke boundaries are not in your favour if betting unders.
plus the Run rate was 3.28 so it was so slow either.

Agree on the manda though it must be common, although not really sure what that is all about why does anyone care about 2 runs in the last over thing.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby yuppie » Mon May 28, 2018 9:36 pm

Dr Cricket wrote:depends on the run lines and what the odds were though.
if the session lines were low then it could be very abnormal to score that low or like wise very odd to score quickly.



It was a very slow pitch though. India scored 600 runs at less than 3 an over. Australia had to bat to save the test match. With that evidence presented i think its safe to say that the reporters been stitched up. It was not even betting on a maiden to finish the session.

No wonder they are not naming any players.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 9:37 pm

might need to watch it again to see what the bet advised were but from first viewing it seemed like 4 bet were advised, with one of them being Manda but then again manda might have been used to impress them, considering surely the odds of predicting manda is quite high must be close to 60-70% of paying out.
although bowling the one over of spin must ruin a lot of bets, always though they go for around 3-5 runs a over when it happens lol.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 9:46 pm

yuppie wrote:
Dr Cricket wrote:depends on the run lines and what the odds were though.
if the session lines were low then it could be very abnormal to score that low or like wise very odd to score quickly.



It was a very slow pitch though. India scored 600 runs at less than 3 an over. Australia had to bat to save the test match. With that evidence presented i think its safe to say that the reporters been stitched up. It was not even betting on a maiden to finish the session.

No wonder they are not naming any players.

Australia batted first, and it seemed the betting or the tips happened on day 1, so india huge first innings score had no bearing on it.
Warner striked at 70 and Renshaw at 63.

8 boundaries in the first 10 overs.
3 in the 2nd
3 in the 3rd session
if they played 30 overs in the first session it would have been 8 boundaries in the first 10 and 6 in the next 20.

was an accleration period 76-87, actually during that session it was quite high scoring actually.

Impossible to say if it was impossible to predict or was easy to predict until we know the brackets and what the tips were, I personally think it would be impossible to predict overs in a bracket especially like you say the pitch was slow and it looked tough to score runs if I remember the game correctly.
but under would be easy to predict but then knowing it would happen is hard as well though especially if the run lines are low.
When the pakistan games start on friday I would post some session lines and the odds for it and trust me without any prior knowledge you wouldn't bet unders because they are either too low and become risky bets.
think around 20-30 runs is normally the expected amount and you would be a brave man to bet under regularly on that.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Mon May 28, 2018 9:47 pm

Can't imagine the money incentive is there for England players. Especially if it's a one off sting rather than steady money as it was for Hansie.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Mon May 28, 2018 9:49 pm

And the Aussies are even richer than the England players.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby yuppie » Mon May 28, 2018 9:52 pm

If i was a betting man, i would bet that the last over of the session would be a low scoring one.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 9:53 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:Can't imagine the money incentive is there for England players. Especially if it's a one off sting rather than steady money as it was for Hansie.


yeah that the reason why Athers can't believe it, he basically said why would any indian, english or Aussie player do it.

Either way bad day for cricket though because you really can't trust anything now.
I don't want to believe it but I do what someone to either say it was categorically false or this to be investigated fully and see what actually did happen.
hopefully this all like the Higgins snooker affair, where a similar thing happened but in that scenario higgins didn't cheat and was hoodwinked by News of the world and they basically manufactured a fix story.

that could have happened here if the journalist basically paid a lot of money to the guy and basically encouraged the indian dude to lie and brag about what he can do but he actually can't.
the only issue is that the two fixes actually happened here, in the snooker case it was a future tournament.

Not sure we heard the last of this.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 9:54 pm

I think you are both mistaking the term "session" to mean the cricketing sense, and not the spread betting sense. How these types of bets work is, a "session" of a limited amount of overs is used to predict certain outcomes to keep the best flowing and punters gambling. For argument sake, a betting session could be each 10 overs in a day. So, for each 10 over blocks, the bookie may lay on an odd for that set.

So, say its 200-0 after 40 overs. The bookie would be thinking two set batsman, smashing for fun, wickets in hand.... they would then state odds on the next "session" being even odds at say 40 runs, with odds either side of varying lengths. 20 runs you are getting huge odds because it would be a notable drop in scoring despite what would appear as easy scoring conditions. They would then also state "last over of the session goes for x amount of runs".

What seems to be being alleged is that in each "session" from a gambling sense, someone has been able to demonstrate that in isolation, scoring became slow. And was also able to highlight that the end overs in these sessions were completely blocked out, with batsman looking totally trying to nullify the ball to stop it leaving the square.

So the bookmaker is saying that not only did they predict or show that the last overs when they said a fix was on, all conformed to their predictions.... which in reality could mean any 4 overs in realistically 9 possible.... but also that these blocked out overs reduced the overall "Session" score to within a lower range that they had predicted.

So its a bit like betting on a run rate of over 4 in the first ten overs of a match, a team scores 39 off the first 9, the odds on that result go sky high, but then you whack on a mega bet on the maiden and it pays out a very large sum because you have the batsman in your pocket.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 9:56 pm

Either way, it is unbelievable. A simple edge that goes past a fielder to the boundary can wreck this type of bet, especially if its large. I doubt very much that a betting syndicate would want to put so much resource into a tactic that has so much risk.

Why pay for such elaborate schemes that can fail, when you can get a pretty good odd on a random no ball.... much easier to buy that, guaranteed and risk free.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby yuppie » Mon May 28, 2018 10:04 pm

Cheers for the explanation on session in betting terms SP.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:06 pm

Good point.
it could be any part of the game.
Although I think the session would be multiples of 5 though never seen a market for 1-4 overs or 6-9 overs etc.
usually been first 5-10, 15 etc.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Mon May 28, 2018 10:11 pm

Dr Cricket wrote:
Arthur Crabtree wrote:Can't imagine the money incentive is there for England players. Especially if it's a one off sting rather than steady money as it was for Hansie.


yeah that the reason why Athers can't believe it, he basically said why would any indian, english or Aussie player do it.



It would be unusually damaging if this was proven to be true right now. Cricket in India can't be killed. Give a couple of players life bans and the game goes on. But the game in UK is diminishing with an ageing generation of supporters who are middle aged and quite disillusioned with the way their sport is run and few younger fans taking their place. Spot/match fixing fills sport with a fog of existential doubt. It might well snuff out the lingering loyalty of many with a wavering interest in the game, which actually takes effort to keep up with, given reduced media interest, a tv paywall and a county game which is barely covered by the press and free to air.

I'm sure the sport is more robust in Australia, but still, the ball tampering episode seems to have wrecked Australia self image as being immaculate sportsmen above reproach. This would be another kick in the same vulnerable spot.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:11 pm

Actually sussex is right they mention the bet start from this over and would end in this over, then this over and end this over etc and each of those was a session.
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