Spot Fixing?

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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Arthur Crabtree » Mon May 28, 2018 10:14 pm

If the bets are parcelled up in that way, surely patterns are easier to spot for those trying to police them. I mean in set bundles, 1-10, or 1-5. They could be hidden better if the overs were changed all the time. 8-17, or 3-8 for example.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:21 pm

sussexpob wrote:Either way, it is unbelievable. A simple edge that goes past a fielder to the boundary can wreck this type of bet, especially if its large. I doubt very much that a betting syndicate would want to put so much resource into a tactic that has so much risk.

Why pay for such elaborate schemes that can fail, when you can get a pretty good odd on a random no ball.... much easier to buy that, guaranteed and risk free.


not really like you say it is spread betting all it does is change the value the market have on the runs for the bracket.
I highly doubt they bet on unders and don't touch anything for the next 10-20 mins and they walk in again.
they very likely betting every over or when ever they can.

if they know they have the batsman they can basically bet unders every time and win money in the long run and if they do lose because a fluke boundary they likely win big in the next one.
could imagine a couple of boundaries by fluke or whatever and the unders would be great odds especially if it something ridiculous like 3.0.

very unlikely they ever lose money because of fluke boundaries because they probably betting all the time on it and in the long runs unders will always win.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:28 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:If the bets are parcelled up in that way, surely patterns are easier to spot for those trying to police them. I mean in set bundles, 1-10, or 1-5. They could be hidden better if the overs were changed all the time. 8-17, or 3-8 for example.


TBH it isn't hidden though Betfair, Bet365 bascially all the betting sites offer session betting.
if Anything I believe Betfair is the number 1 website or the service they use for the betting.
I believe a lot of the illegial betting in india on cricket is been done by VPN and having online betting accounts.
Betfair is certainly huge though compare the numbers of an untelevised cricket game and a televised cricket game and it is shocking, especially english county games.

all the betting is open.
betting companies are meant to give information to the authorities if they suspect someone always placing the same bet or odd betting patterns, but not sure it is possible to be very effective in the long run, impossible to know what bet are real and something that is dodgy plus would they really want it to be stopped when they making money on it as well.
they probably only going to flag it up when it becomes so obvious and they are losing money on it.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:34 pm

Apparently online betting isn't Illegal in india, the law confusing.
basically betting is illegal but nothing stopping online betting.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india/le ... vOjiP.html

I could be totally wrong on this but I get the impression in india that the illegial betting stuff is run like this people ring people or place bets to someone, they place the bets for you online or ring someone abroad and they place the bets for you online and everything is based on what the online bookies are pricing.

They probably using VPN and someone placing bets for them overseas.
I do know for a fact Betfair is very popular in india.
Last edited by Dr Cricket on Mon May 28, 2018 10:37 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 10:36 pm

There is no way these bookmakers are using Bet365. Online gambling has very sophisticated systems, and even anyone betting fair who bets the bookie once for a few grand might be refused further betting instantly. They have algorithms to flag who is taking money, they just shut you down. Might work on the exchanges, but then again I doubt on European open exchanges such vast sums of money would go unnoticed, and who is going to front up a million quid on that on a UK exchange! No one. These people bet as syndicates on illegal channels, black market bookies totally off the radar.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 10:40 pm

Arthur Crabtree wrote:If the bets are parcelled up in that way, surely patterns are easier to spot for those trying to police them. I mean in set bundles, 1-10, or 1-5. They could be hidden better if the overs were changed all the time. 8-17, or 3-8 for example.


Id think they are incredibly hard to spot, to be honest. Most of these things are spotted on the size of bets being abnormal, but as I said in this case its doubtful that these bets were placed on open markets.

You have to think, if you were to bowl an over with only 2 or less runs, what are the probabilities? One in every 5 overs approximately are maiden overs in test cricket. There is a boundary once in every 15 balls approximately. So you have to think that every 2.5 overs is over average by at least one run. So a median type of average over conceded must be close to a manda.

Trying to find a statistical pattern that mirrors the median average is, well, pretty damn impossible.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:43 pm

What about the exchanges though isn't the betfair exchanges stuff very popular.
don't they get Millions of pounds matched on stupid games, even county games can get match for millions of pounds.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 10:46 pm

Dr Cricket wrote:What about the exchanges though isn't the betfair exchanges stuff very popular.
don't they get Millions of pounds matched on stupid games, even county games can get match for millions of pounds.


In theory, as the bookie is just the venue for the exchanges and wouldnt themselves be taking on the risk, they wouldnt really care too much about the outcome. But there are other factors as to why they would pick it up and flag/action against it, such as crime, money laudering, fraud etc.

I dont honestly know how much a common match amount can get up to, ive only seen 10,000s as maximum matched bets. Id think a cool mill being laid down on a random over of cricket in India, at 5am, in a match not containing a UK based interest, would probably blow the head office fraud monitor off the ground.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 10:55 pm

sussexpob wrote:
Dr Cricket wrote:What about the exchanges though isn't the betfair exchanges stuff very popular.
don't they get Millions of pounds matched on stupid games, even county games can get match for millions of pounds.


In theory, as the bookie is just the venue for the exchanges and wouldnt themselves be taking on the risk, they wouldnt really care too much about the outcome. But there are other factors as to why they would pick it up and flag/action against it, such as crime, money laudering, fraud etc.

I dont honestly know how much a common match amount can get up to, ive only seen 10,000s as maximum matched bets. Id think a cool mill being laid down on a random over of cricket in India, at 5am, in a match not containing a UK based interest, would probably blow the head office fraud monitor off the ground.


That a good point but it might be impossible to detect session betting or match result betting mostly because they are very popular.

Ed hawkins generally post all the betfair data but I am pretty sure most games get matched similar amount, at the moment they a clear pattern between televised and non televised betting, the dude in the show more or less confirmed it that they make sure games are televised so people around the world can place bets on it they don't make any money if it isn't televised.

Lets say on average games get matched around 10-20 million a game, so it would be quite difficult to detect if someone is betting 1000-2000 pound bets even 10,000 K bets would seem ok.

England vs pak test 2nd test been matched 99,579 pounds
someone placed 800 pound on England winning
1628 on England losing

2816 on the draw happening
1585 on a result

224 on pakistan winning
987 on pakistan losing

https://www.betfair.com/exchange/plus/cricket

Anyway think World 11 and West indies games would be more of an indication of what normally happens in domestic games, might see what that get matched on thursday.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 11:01 pm

TBH the criminal and the likes of Dawood ibrahim etc will never use Bet365 and those site because they would obviously be banned, but I am pretty sure normal citizen of india use them though.
on twitter seen Shanky mention Bet365 before and I think he place bet sometimes so it does happen.
not that normal indian people are fixing games of course but they are probably using bet365 to place bets just like people in the uk do and have a small flutter.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby sussexpob » Mon May 28, 2018 11:05 pm

Dr Cricket wrote:TBH the criminal and the likes of Dawood ibrahim etc will never use Bet365 and those site because they would obviously be banned, but I am pretty sure normal citizen of india use them though.
on twitter seen Shanky mention Bet365 before and I think he place bet sometimes so it does happen.
not that normal indian people are fixing games of course but they are probably using bet365 to place bets just like people in the uk do and have a small flutter.


I cant access it from Belgium. It says that I am contacting it from a banned country.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 11:11 pm

sussexpob wrote:
Dr Cricket wrote:TBH the criminal and the likes of Dawood ibrahim etc will never use Bet365 and those site because they would obviously be banned, but I am pretty sure normal citizen of india use them though.
on twitter seen Shanky mention Bet365 before and I think he place bet sometimes so it does happen.
not that normal indian people are fixing games of course but they are probably using bet365 to place bets just like people in the uk do and have a small flutter.


I cant access it from Belgium. It says that I am contacting it from a banned country.


yeah they do gps checking now, although that is easy to overcome though not sure how they get over the card and payment thing though.
I be honest I have no idea how indian bets but I do know they do use online betting though.
they really need to legalise betting in india now, ICC and the full members have been calling it for years so they can actually regulate the betting, at the moment it is impossible to do it because no one even knows how betting even works in india or how they even do it.
who knows the betfair exchange could be a fraction of the total bets or it could be most of it.
if it is only a fraction it is quite scary TBH.

Think even indian political people called it after one of the IPL scandals.
https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-ne ... 4lL6O.html

they really should do it win-win for all parties really.
Government get taxes and betting can be regulated
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Mon May 28, 2018 11:32 pm

According to insiders, a top golf tournament, say the US Masters, would attract bets worth 2 to 3 million on Betfair. For a smaller sport, with a very limited geography, cricket seems to do better. During the 2010 World Twenty20 in the West Indies, each match drew bets worth 3 to 4 million. In contrast, this year's Indian Premier League, which preceded the World Twenty20 by a few days, saw betting amounting to over 12 million per match on Betfair. "Some of the matches," says an unimpeachable source, "crossed 15 million in bets."
http://www.espn.com/cricket/story/_/id/ ... re-betting

games involving india are matched around $200 Millions dollars
https://www.hindustantimes.com/business ... Pn7dI.html
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby bigfluffylemon » Tue May 29, 2018 3:47 am

It does sound highly unlikely that the run rate in specified overs could be fixed to that degree of precision. The bet could be correct by chance (and we don't know if any predictions were made that did not pan out).

I sincerely hope that this isn't true. I also hope that if it is proven true, CA and ECB have the courage to ban the offenders for life. After the Pakistan incident, no-one can claim naivety as a defence.
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Re: Spot Fixing?

Postby Dr Cricket » Wed May 30, 2018 7:00 pm

Not really looking good actually, the guy is seen now in the same lobby near bresnan and swann and was around sri lanka lobbies during the ICC 2012 20/20 world cup.

Doesn't prove anything that england or Australia cheated but in my eyes it does prove that the guy is kind of genuine in that he was probably a known fixer, although reports are that ICSU does have reports on him.

Like Ed hawkins said though impossible to prove players cheated considering Cairns got away with it even when a formar nz captain said he cheated.
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