The Ashes; First Test, Cardiff, July 8-12

[sussexpob]

The Strauss of 2004-05 was absolutely immense. I'd say, better than Cook has ever been at any point in his career.

Well the series he had in South Africa in 2004-05 will arguably go down as one of the greatest ever played by an England player, what he get 4 hundreds that tour against a pretty good attack in bowler friendly conditions. Cracking series win that too, who can forget Hoggy running through them

[braveneutral]

Clarke and Bell the only two survivors from 2005.

Clatke 110 Tests 28 hundreds 27 fifties.

Bell 110 Tests 22 hundreds 42 fifties.

Bell going into his sixth ashes series is hardly mentioned if at all.

I thought I read seventh consecutive?

That's right bn, the two in 2013 confused me.

Very impressive.

[ntini77]

I'll be interested to see how England bowl against the Australian lower order.

After the fifth wicket fell in their first innings, Australia averaged over 42 runs per wicket in the last series.

[Arthur Crabtree]

As I was discussing elsewhere, the game starts at 8pm for east coasters and 6pm for westerners, quite civilised hours for the Aussies.

Forecast is looking good. Quite a lot of cloud on the first two days, so we might see something for the bowlers. We seem to be anticipating batting tracks otherwise.

[Gingerfinch]

Who are the favourites? I'm guessing the Aussies are.......just?

[GarlicJam]

Bad timing in that the final State of Origin is on at the same time as the test starting. That will take precedence for me, maybe not for Stands.

I really don't like missing out on the start of an Ashes series, but at least it is just a couple of hours.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Our first Test is on the west coast, but it doesn't make any difference over here.

[GarlicJam]

not timing wise, maybe weather wise.

[Durhamfootman]

I'll be interested to see how England bowl against the Australian lower order.

After the fifth wicket fell in their first innings, Australia averaged over 42 runs per wicket in the last series.

Haddin and Harris, iirc

[Arthur Crabtree]

Any predictions? I can't bet against the Aussie, unless England win a lot of very favourable tosses. Catching could bring the sides closer together. But given even luck, I'll go 3-1 to the visitors.

[Gingerfinch]

3-2 to the Aussies. Both teams will be positive, so no draws, unless the weather has a big say.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I kind of think, no draws, but there might be no pace in the pitches. Australia's recent record in England is pretty dire, so it's quite a call to predict a big win for them. But England's recent record home and away is very bad. They're not strong enough to win this. But... they can lose well.

[alfie]

Not keen on making a prediction this time round. I generally expect the home team to win unless there is a clear mismatch between them : and until they actually take the field I am not sure whether that applies this time or not.
Australia absolutely murdered England down here in 13/14 , of course ; but that happened in the context of a very long settled and successful England team , which had been fighting for a little while to arrest the downward trend from its peak , finally fallling off a cliff...
Australia is a difficult place to play five Tests when that happens : I am old enough to remember what happened to Peter May's team in 1958/59 ...not dissimilar.
And it takes a bit of time to recover. I suspect England are doing so , though this series may be coming a few months too soon.
And how good are Australia , really ? Excellent in ODIs at home recently ; and they had a good result in SA not so long ago. But other than that I'm not sure they have been outstanding - in the manner of the great Taylor/Waugh/Ponting teams. They haven't won in three series in England so I don't think they are odds on favourites ; though they are probably entitled to be more confident this time.

Yeah this fence is quite comfortable actually : I think I'll stay sat here a while

Roll on Wednesday ...

[Aidan11]

I'm confident we can win this series. It will be tight though. Maybe 3-2 or 2-1.

[Arthur Crabtree]

I don't think Australia are a great team, though they have a fine attack. But post 2013-4 Ashes, England have struggled against a number of inferior sides. They don't have a settled spinner, and they are reliant on Broad and Anderson who frequently looked tired. Bell and Cook look past their best. The big hope for England is that the absence of Moores might release some of the latent talent in the side. Or that, like England in 2013-4, it proves a series too far for an elderly Australian XI.