by Arthur Crabtree » Thu Dec 24, 2015 3:42 pm
The Kingsmead ground has been home to Test cricket since 1923, and is famous for the effect of the nearby Ocean on play, with occasional periods of humidity giving the game sudden swings and leaps forward on an otherwise placid pitch.
As in 1999 when England bowled out South Africa for 156, but, on following on, Gary Kirsten batted for nearly 15 hours to draw the game. The Kirsten innings irks me a little, as he massively exceeded Atherton's heroics at Jo'burg, but no England supporter ever mentions it. In the great series of 2004-5, England were bowled out for 139, but 570-7d (hundreds for Strauss, Trescothick and Thorpe) meant England had time to almost win the game, but for bad light.
Light, and electrical storms can be influential there.
Last time in Durban, hundreds for Cook and Bell, and wickets for Swann (nine) and Broad, saw England to a big win. Cook is the only remaining England batter to have played in a Test in South Africa. England have never lost in Durban and South Africa's record there is poor recently, only beating India in their last five Tests there.
Swann's wickets are a bit misleading. Pace bowlers do very well at Kingsmead, between the heavy scores. Steyn has a strike rate of 43. Sreesanth did well in a couple of games there. Skiddy swing bowlers are at the top, hit the pitch bowlers less prominent. Even so, in the last ten years, Jadeja, Warne and Herath have 5-fers. In normal conditions, everyone has to work for their rewards, but, unless there is a huge storm, there will be a result.
Note, Hashim Amla averages under 20 at this ground, and hasn't scored a ton. This was Jacques Kallis' ground.
Cricinfo is predicting these will be the two sides, with Anderson and Philander out:
South Africa: 1 Stiaan van Zyl, 2 Dean Elgar, 3 Hashim Amla, 4 Faf du Plessis, 5 AB de Villiers (wk), 6 Temba Bavuma, 7 JP Duminy, 8 Dale Steyn, 9 Dane Piedt, 10 Kyle Abbott, 11 Morne Morkel.
England: 1 Alastair Cook (capt), 2 Alex Hales, 3 Nick Compton, 4 Joe Root, 5 James Taylor, 6 Ben Stokes, 7 Jonny Bairstow (wk), 8 Moeen Ali, 9 Stuart Broad, 10 Chris Woakes, 11 Steven Finn.
If it's a bowling day, the toss will be crucial, and the weather looks cloudy and changeable on Saturday, but mostly dry afterwards. There should be a result. Some press are making England favourites, and their record at the ground, and South Africa's backs that up.
I always say that everybody's right.