sussexpob wrote:bigfluffylemon wrote:Never ever win the toss and bowl at Lord's.
Its not looking a great decision so far.
It very seldom is. By the stats:
Since 2000, teams winning the toss at Lord's have chosen to bat first 19 times. Of those, they have won 10, drawn 6 and lost 3, for a W/L ratio of 3.33. England have only lost one game at Lord's in 20 years after winning the toss and batting.
Conversely, teams winning the toss at Lord's since 2000 have chosen to bowl an astonishing 23 times (not including this game), which shows how seductive the overheads can be. Despite that, they have won 7, lost 10 and drawn 7, for a W/L ratio of 0.7. To be fair to England, they are the team that has had the most success doing this (never ever ever choose to bowl here if you win the toss as a tourist), but three of England's five wins when choosing to bowl here came before 2012 against very weak West Indies, Bangladesh and Zimbabwe teams - teams that were so weak in those tours that England would have beaten them easily regardless of the toss (two innings wins and one by 5 wickets).
To be somewhat fair to England, last time India toured, England won the toss and bowled at Lord's and beat them by an innings, as the overheads were brutal on day 2 (after no play on day 1) then it became very nice for batting on day 3. But this is the only occasion since 2012 that a team has won choosing to bowl first at Lord's. And this time around the forecast is set pretty fair. Cloud at Lord's suckers teams into bowling far more than often than they should given its history.
One factor seems to be that even if you do get the opposition for a sub-par score in the first innings (which does happen fairly often), the second and third innings are typically easiest to bat on, while the pitch tends to be pretty challenging to bat on in the 4th innings (no team has successfully chased more than 200 to win here since 2004). So even if you do get the opposition for a poor score in the 1st innings, you still have the huge disadvantage of batting last.
Looks as if we'll be adding another to the 'bowl first and lose at Lord's' stat entry...