First Test. South Africa v England. Durban, 26-30 Dec.

[Alviro Patterson]

A 380-400 run lead for lunch is a tough ask on a slow wicket and outfield. I'd be wanting to bat beyond lunch for a number of reasons - keep the South Africa in the field as long as possible, run their bowlers to the ground and keep England's pace attack as fresh as possible with a 48 hour turnover time between Durban and Cape Town.

[Dr Cricket]

A 380-400 run lead for lunch is a tough ask on a slow wicket and outfield. I'd be wanting to bat beyond lunch for a number of reasons - keep the South Africa in the field as long as possible, run their bowlers to the ground and keep England's pace attack as fresh as possible with a 48 hour turnover time between Durban and Cape Town.

really think this game will be a draw, might cash out when England take an early wicket or when their declare, made some good money yesterday when the bookies wrongly put SA favourites.

really like ed hawkins advice that only bet when things are guaranteed or very likely to happen.
2 day rest makes it so much likely that a draw scenario will come up especially when you consider England would like to bat longer and bowl less.

Cricviz model predict a draw even though england are 57% to win with draw 37%.

Can't argue with it, England rightly favourites but Draw more likely to happen.
Time might be the issue why England draw the game, they predicting it to go the distance, love it that they show the upper and lower margin to the data.

[backfootpunch]

A 380-400 run lead for lunch is a tough ask on a slow wicket and outfield. I'd be wanting to bat beyond lunch for a number of reasons - keep the South Africa in the field as long as possible, run their bowlers to the ground and keep England's pace attack as fresh as possible with a 48 hour turnover time between Durban and Cape Town.

really think this game will be a draw, might cash out when England take an early wicket or when their declare, made some good money yesterday when the bookies wrongly put SA favourites.

really like ed hawkins advice that only bet when things are guaranteed or very likely to happen.
2 day rest makes it so much likely that a draw scenario will come up especially when you consider England would like to bat longer and bowl less.

Cricviz model predict a draw even though england are 57% to win with draw 37%.

Can't argue with it, England rightly favourites but Draw more likely to happen.
Time might be the issue why England draw the game, they predicting it to go the distance, love it that they show the upper and lower margin to the data.

at this stage an england win is the likeliest result, south africa will have to bat out an absolute minimum of 120 overs more like 140 overs if england play well tomorrow

teams dont do that very often, especially ones that are low on confidence and have so many out of form batsmen

[Dr Cricket]

Yep but this another scenario of where the model predict a different result even though that result not more likely to happen, but that only because Test cricket is a very unique game.

England can't afford a poor day tomorrow though since that makes draw very likely on day 5, one reason model predicting a draw they think england need 2 more good session to get a win more likely to happen on day 5.

[Dr Cricket]

don't forget SA are pretty good at batting for draws.
their too many doubts on how many overs they will bat for the draw anything from 160-120 overs.
maybe even less if their agree on the draw before the close, england might back out early because of the new year test.
Different pitch but England agreed on the draw pretty easy in Trent bridge in 2014.

Anyway tomorrow all about England, SA only affect the prediction on the Final session of day 4 or when their bat.

England setting the total and the time.

[sussexpob]

A 380-400 run lead for lunch is a tough ask on a slow wicket and outfield. I'd be wanting to bat beyond lunch for a number of reasons - keep the South Africa in the field as long as possible, run their bowlers to the ground and keep England's pace attack as fresh as possible with a 48 hour turnover time between Durban and Cape Town.

really think this game will be a draw, might cash out when England take an early wicket or when their declare, made some good money yesterday when the bookies wrongly put SA favourites.

really like ed hawkins advice that only bet when things are guaranteed or very likely to happen.
2 day rest makes it so much likely that a draw scenario will come up especially when you consider England would like to bat longer and bowl less.

Cricviz model predict a draw even though england are 57% to win with draw 37%.

Can't argue with it, England rightly favourites but Draw more likely to happen.
Time might be the issue why England draw the game, they predicting it to go the distance, love it that they show the upper and lower margin to the data.

Never heard of ed Hawkins, but most professional tipsters work on giving advice based on correct hit ratios and not profitability, because it's getting it right for a reader that looks good, not the fact his tip at 1/5 got you nothing in return considering the risk. Unless you are rain man and betting on multiple outcomes in event, small single bets are not going to return you anything.

Any bet pundit worth their salt will tell you the opposite.....beat the booking on their over valuations, which is basicallly all about your knowledge. It's risky, but it pays better in the long run.

[sussexpob]

As for whatever model predicts the draw, what exactly is this based on because it doesn't reflect reality.

Top score in match, 303....current lead 261, projected at least 350-400 with at least 4-5 sessions left.

Draw is a possibility, but on what data it can be made favourite is beyond me.

[Dr Cricket]

He a trader or tipster.
People don't bet on the team to win but to trade when the odds change.
Perfect situation yesterday SA favourites even though they were one wicket away from a huge odd change.
Basically you would say back England odds wrong, as predicted England took wickets.
In this situation you wouldn't recommend any bet since draw is unlikely to happen and England odd can go up, basically you look for a moment to cashout I generally do it when SA bat and lose early wicket I always sacrifice small percent of Money on the last day unless it is obvious it will be a win.

No model predict a draw is favourite just that draw is a player so be aware about it, remember England are still favourite to win.

Generally cricket is the best sport to gamble on since bookies make mistakes and it is actually quite fun following the odds even if you don't bet on it.

Only got into it because loads of people do it online.
Not making huge amount Money though because I only do safe bet and 10 or 20 pounds stake.

[Dr Cricket]

Sussex you got the quote wrong he meant what you know about pitch or what gonna happen in the game, not the odds of the game.
Perfect example India vs SA where India were over priced every game,
He said bet on India because guranteed rank turner and as we know SA can't play spin.
He basically said don't bet if you are not certain.
basically I use that advice I don't bet if I have doubts on the result or anything.

Sorry about posting about betting, or promoting it.

[backfootpunch]

He a trader or tipster.
People don't bet on the team to win but to trade when the odds change.
Perfect situation yesterday SA favourites even though they were one wicket away from a huge odd change.
Basically you would say back England odds wrong, as predicted England took wickets.
In this situation you wouldn't recommend any bet since draw is unlikely to happen and England odd can go up, basically you look for a moment to cashout I generally do it when SA bat and lose early wicket I always sacrifice small percent of Money on the last day unless it is obvious it will be a win.

No model predict a draw is favourite just that draw is a player so be aware about it, remember England are still favourite to win.

Generally cricket is the best sport to gamble on since bookies make mistakes and it is actually quite fun following the odds even if you don't bet on it.

Only got into it because loads of people do it online.
Not making huge amount Money though because I only do safe bet and 10 or 20 pounds stake.

the best way to bet is just to make a new account on a different betting site every week

many of them give you £30 in free bets if you place a £10 bet as a new customer

i have made £240 in the last month doing this

[hopeforthebest]

He a trader or tipster.
People don't bet on the team to win but to trade when the odds change.
Perfect situation yesterday SA favourites even though they were one wicket away from a huge odd change.
Basically you would say back England odds wrong, as predicted England took wickets.
In this situation you wouldn't recommend any bet since draw is unlikely to happen and England odd can go up, basically you look for a moment to cashout I generally do it when SA bat and lose early wicket I always sacrifice small percent of Money on the last day unless it is obvious it will be a win.

No model predict a draw is favourite just that draw is a player so be aware about it, remember England are still favourite to win.

Generally cricket is the best sport to gamble on since bookies make mistakes and it is actually quite fun following the odds even if you don't bet on it.

Only got into it because loads of people do it online.
Not making huge amount Money though because I only do safe bet and 10 or 20 pounds stake.

the best way to bet is just to make a new account on a different betting site every week

many of them give you £30 in free bets if you place a £10 bet as a new customer

i have made £240 in the last month doing this

You've probably run out sites already.

[hopeforthebest]

Root out wth a poor shot, trying to cut a ball too close to him. Big wicket and opens up a possibility of a collapse.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Good innings though, after a couple of early wickets, taking England to a lead of 280, which is probably enough.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Could be some fun with Stokes in.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Ouch.