Ashes 2025-26.

[sussexpob]

England (again fitness permitting) look to have a strong pace bowling list - less said about spin the better

England's entire bowling strategy has an acute "scrapping the bottom of the barrel" vibe, and the sort of wacky idea that only gets embraced when you hold an 18-3 losing record over 20 years and everyone is clueless how to stop the beatings. During the back to back 4-0s in the 2010s, we played on exceptionally flat tracks for Australia, and while I do not agree with the assessment myself, the "we need sheer pace" idea took hold at that time in answer to those specific conditions- and this has snowballed now into what we have now - a team build around an idea to combat conditions that no longer apply. If this was 2015, then sure why not try it for a test or two if the series begins badly. Australian bowlers at the time were bowling shorter themselves because of the deadness of the tracks, but this is no longer the case. The days of 45 per wicket average of the 2010s have collapsed to lower scores, and places like Adelaide or Melbourne are no longer doormats you make runs on for fun.

[sussexpob]

The fact is, in the last 5 years Josh Hazlewood, Scott Boland and Pat Cummins records in Australia are outstanding (and Cam Green also when he bowls)... what do all of these bowlers do? They all bowl seam up, and generate bounce and movement by great presentation of the ball. Cummins has pace (Although not extreme), but I don't think you look at this attack and think its express pace. And better bowling average is proportional to declining pace (including Starc, who is the quickest/worst performer).

It shouldn't be a surprise at all, because since 2006 who are the bowlers in test cricket who generate the most measurable seam movement according to data, with a minimum requirement of targeting the stumps at plus 30-40%.

Kyle Abbott - Averages 14 in Australia, and was part of one of the few teams touring to win since the 90s.
Jasprit Bumrah - Won twice in Australia as man of the series, averages17
Chris Tremlett - England's best averaging player in Australia in the last 25 years. Played three games in England's only win since 1987, and England won two by an innings.
Ntini/Philander/Nel - All formed an attack that won twice in Australia

Home bowlers on the top seam movement list

Glenn McGrath - Arguably the best bowler in Australia conditions ever
Hazlewood - Best of the first string attack in the 2020s at home
James Pattinson - Best bowling average of the 2010s at home
Cummins - Best bowler of his own career span in Australia
Scott Boland - Has a Victorian era average at home when he plays

Essentially, the data is clear. No team has won in Australia in 3 decades without having a bowler who moves the ball off the surface laterally a long way. Those that had players that did it, all won. And this is consistent for the home side as well, because their own players records are so good because they also extract this movement.

Pace is utterly meaningless. Bowling short is utterly meaningless.

[Arthur Crabtree]

Mitch Johnson? One man superpace wrecking machine. He reverse swung the ball, but he whitewashed England with hostility.

[sussexpob]

Mitch Johnson? One man superpace wrecking machine. He reverse swung the ball, but he whitewashed England with hostility.

The funny thing is, this outlier example that is used to justify England's approach is, quite literally, the biggest proof one can have of the opposite argument.

The Ashes 13-14 series is almost entirely remembered through the lens of what happened at Brisbane due to a few iconic moments in that game; Trott looking visually rattled by Johnson, and Johnson then tearing England's tail away in a barrage of short pitched stuff, as the crowd bayed for blood, and Clarke shouted at English players to get ready for hospital. But this lasting memory of events is false - Trott was severely mentally ill, and despite the narrative of the time portraying that as representing an England team crumbling under fear, his discomfort had nothing to do with what was going on during the game - he was, quite literally, severely ill. And the game was absolutely dead in the water before Johnson came on with 400-450 left to get, and the mighty Jimmy Anderson and Chris Tremlett to bowl at to finish the game.

Aside from these two examples, Johnson did not really revert back to the Brisbane barrage at any point. The data on his performance is conclusive - during his career, when this series is taken out the equation, he had I believe the highest proportion of wickets caught in the history of the game, testament to the fact he relied on short pitch bowling and rarely targeted the stump. During 13-14, he not only got these percentages up, but staggeringly so. He went from someone with one of the worst ratios of balls hitting, to historical high numbers - and after Brisbane, half of his wickets in the series were bowled/lbw - historically high numbers of dismissals for a series. And almost all of his caught dismissals were from balls full of a length.

The Mitchwash was not about express pace and short pitched barrages, the Mitchwash was a bowler finding a rare groove of hitting line and length with consistent, staggering accuracy. If you don't think seam did anything for Mitch, then watch the first ball of the 2nd test..... one of the greatest balls ever delivered, line, length, nips a long way from the deck... Cook had zero chance.

Ryan Harris was a bowler who digged it in and relied on seam movement.... he did also average under 20 that series too.

[sussexpob]

Now, you could argue that this does not matter. But again, the data says thats wrong.

In two games vs India this summer, England maintained their worst percentage of balls on the stumps in a decade (25% odd percent) as they targeted short pitched bowling with the older ball once the movement died out. This resulted in the highest wicket average after 30 overs in their test history, a staggering 88.5 runs per wicket.

Essentially, the tactic to go short with the older ball and focus on Key's "buying wickets with pace" has resulted in England's worst historical bowling performance ever in the middle to end overs.

The Kookaburra dies out earlier, so if this was to be replicated, England are in for a long series.

[alfie]

Obviously pace isn't everything ; but I am not saying the England squad looks quite likely because of their velocity alone. Archer has skills apart from speed , Atkinson too. Tongue arguably has bounce as his best weapon... Wood when he is fit provides pace to be effective anywhere. Carse , Potts , decent workhorses. Reckon that is as good a group they've taken to Australia for a while , even if none of them are ever likely to be in the England pace bowlers Hall of Fame.

Hard to think there are better bowlers being left out for the six they have picked ?

[Arthur Crabtree]

Does seem that England have gone from picking a specific attack for Perth, to wanting that same strategy for the whole series.

England's tactics are very influenced by that particular series, more than any other beating. They're not picking leg spinners anymore. But you've also got to look at what you've got, rather than what you wish you had.

[sussexpob]

Reckon that is as good a group they've taken to Australia for a while , even if none of them are ever likely to be in the England pace bowlers Hall of Fame

Even simply comparing it to the last Ashes touring side that went out in 2021-22.... when comparing people based on ascending career bowling averages.

Ollie Robinson v Gus Atkinson - Both average 22 with the ball, Atkinson shades it with the bat. But context here is key - 65% of Ollie Robinson's matches were played vs top 3 ranked sides, Gus Atkinson has not played a single test vs a top 3 ranked side. Half of Atkinson's wickets are against the worst traditional test playing nation, at a time they have their worst historically ranked batting line up. Robinson has gone on tour to Australia, and ranked in the top 3 performers in recent decades on bowling average. Robinson is comfortably a winner here.

Jimmy Anderson v Josh Tongue - Not even going to bother with this one.

Stuart Broad v Brydon Carse - Same.

Chris Woakes v Jofra Archer - Archer gives up 20 runs with the bat, and 5 runs with the ball on career averages. Woakes didn't perform well away, but Archer also hasn't with an average plus 40, and only 6 wickets in the last 4 games, including a series in NZ where he averaged 100. Archer also has been injured for 4 years.

Stokes and Wood - Both have been injured huge amounts since 2021, so I think its comfortable to say you'd want the younger version over the injured all the time in the last 4 years versions.

Moeen Ali v Bashir - Bashir gives up 20 runs to Moeen with the bat, and 3 with the ball. Like Atkinson, that figure is somewhat skewed by weak opposition - remove Zimbabwe from Bashir, and the difference is 13. Bashir's test career is a car crash when ranked 10 and 12 sides are removed from his record.

So, I think I would take Atkinson over Woakes..... and that's it. Id take every other player from 2021-22

[alfie]

I'd love to have 21/22 model Anderson Broad and Robinson too... but since I don't have a time machine that isn't exactly viable

If (if !) this lot stay fit I think they are a better balanced group for Australian conditions. But this is all talk for now so will wait and see what actually happens.

[sussexpob]

But you've also got to look at what you've got, rather than what you wish you had.

I refuse to accept that point, because the England Management team decided counter-factually that players performance in the CC is meaningless, and that certain skills are more useful in others based no evidence. We are lead to believe that taking wickets for fun indicates nothing - well, can you tell me Rob Key why the highest ranked test bowlers playing in the CC both averaged 30 and 35 per wicket respectively? I guess you can say Jayden Seales was out of form, but he left and averaged 22 in a series vs Australia midway through the season, so hmm... I guess not. Three current or recent past caps averaged over 40 a wicket... England's best test bowler averaged over 30. So its supposed to be easy, but all these great players arent doing much.

In fact, go down the list of players who took 30 wickets in Division 1 who had opportunities at the highest level.

Kyle Abbott - Averaged 14 a wicket in OZ. Highly impressive test numbers. Quality player
Steve Harmer - Averages 27 in test cricket. England haven't had a spinner with an average that low since Jim Laker in the 50s.
Jack Leach - Numerically superior to the current spinner in the side.
Ollie Robinson - Has a better test average than any England seamer since Fred Trueman
Mohammed Abbas - Averages 22 in test cricket
Josh Tongue - In the side, decent start to his career
Craig Overton - Hardly a disastrous player at test level

So from what we can actually prove given those who got the opportunity, it very much seems like those doing well in the CC have proven to be good players... two are quite literally an instant upgrade on the side going out there.

What does Porter have to do to get a cap?

[andy]

Being someone who watches a lot of Jamie porter I'd say his time has gone.....and it pains me to say it as I thought he should have played for England years ago.....but these days he averages 75mph top speed and has a lost a bit of his nip....he is perfect for CC but I would worry about him in test cricket

[Arthur Crabtree]

Ben Coad might be a newer version. Except he's frequently injured.

[sussexpob]

Being someone who watches a lot of Jamie porter I'd say his time has gone.....and it pains me to say it as I thought he should have played for England years ago.....but these days he averages 75mph top speed and has a lost a bit of his nip....he is perfect for CC but I would worry about him in test cricket

I dont understand this argument, I don't really see where it is applicable given any other context? Its a bit like trying to argue a boxer who has lost to a load of bums but has a sledgehammer fist, has a better chance against an elite fighter than some one with well rounded skills who does nothing but win. As much as the power element is useful, one has to assume if it does not give them an elite edge against crap boxer then there is a fundamental skill deficiency somewhere which prevents them form doing so- and that deficiency also increases with added difficulty.

What does "a bit of nip" translate to? Porter took wickets at 20, Potts with his extra nip went at 43. Id be inclined to suggest "nip" means nothing, or is inferior to other skills that are relevant. Trying to argue that the inferior performer is better is counter-factual. Its not based on anything but guesswork... guesswork thats counter factual.

The Key line of thinking is to say "that sprinter there is quicker and beats everyone, but this sprinter is a champion because he has blue hair"....

[Arthur Crabtree]

About 4 weeks to go. BBC has been encouraging pre-series chat with McG, Vaughany and Tuffers picking their composite side. Here's mine...

Duckett/Khawaja/S.Smith/Root/Brook/Stokes/Carey/Starc/Cummins/Lyon/Hazlewood.

Except Cummins might not play. That's 7-4 to Aus. They went

Crawley/Duckett/Green/S.Smith/Brook/Stokes/J.Smith/Starc/Cummins/Lyon/Hazlewood

Which is 6-5 to Aus. But then they didn't pick Joe Root.

[sussexpob]

The BBCs social media post had the composite team decided omitting Steve Smith over Root, unless this was an error or clickbait. In the spirit of the discussion taking each natural position by position, you can't have both, so...

I have to go for Smith. Average of 60 and 18 hundreds at home v no hundreds in 27 innings and a mid-30s average is simply no comparison. I have a feeling Root will correct some of these stats in this series, but we are still comparing something historically GOAT stats vs someone who has struggled in the conditions. Objectively its not a choice.

Crawley v Khawaja is an insult to Usman. No unbiased person of sound mind acting in good faith can argue Crawley is better. I take Green over Pope at 3, because I take Travis Head at 6 over Stokes. Stokes record in Australia is also pretty rubbish, he gives up 16 per wicket to Green, and a few runs with the bat. And Travis Head averages over 50 at home. Green/Head v Pope/Stokes gives me a better batter and a much better 5th bowling option in the conditions.

Khawaja/Duckett/Green/Smith/Brook/Head/J.Smith/Cummins/Starc/Hazelwood/Lyon

8 v 3